Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
New York City FCvNew York Red Bulls
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). New York City FC and New York Red Bulls finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| New / New | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, New York City FC down the side and New York Red Bulls across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 55% against 64%.
What we think
- New York City FC57% · Match result
- Over 2.555% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 67% against a market price of 59% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 1.8 goals, and 2.9 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 21 players reported unavailable — 7 for New York City FC, 14 for New York Red Bulls.
- The price has moved 2.2% away from New York City FC since it opened.
Our forecast makes New York City FC the most likely of the three results, at 57% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 57% this result does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 55%, against the market’s 64% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives New York City FC a 52% chance. Our model makes it 57%.
2Market
Open: 54% home · 22% draw · 23% away
Now: 52% home · 23% draw · 24% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from New York City FC
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
New York City FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. O'Neill — out (International duty)
- T. Gray — out (International duty)
- K. Parks — out (Injury)
- Talles Magno — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Trewin — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Ilenic — out (International duty)
- M. Freese — out (International duty)
New York Red Bulls
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Marshall-Rutty — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Marcucci — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- J. Che — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- M. Dos Santos — out (International duty)
- R. Mosquera — out (Inactive)
- R. Donkor — out (Yellow Cards)
- C. Harper — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Nealis — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Sofo — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- O. Valencia — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Mehmeti — out (Red Card)
- D. Ruiz — out (International duty)
- M. Jimenez — out (International duty)
- J. Hall — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
New York City FCWLDDD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Real Salt Lake 2–0
- Thu 10 Sep · H v New England Revolution 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Nashville SC 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Toronto FC 1–1(xG 0.4–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v New England Revolution 1–1
New York Red BullsWLDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Columbus Crew 1–0
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Los Angeles FC 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Seattle Sounders 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 1–3(xG 2.0–2.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- New York City FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- New York City FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of New York City FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of New York City FC's last 5.
- New York City FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have won 1 of their last 5.
- New York Red Bulls have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of New York Red Bulls's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of New York Red Bulls's last 5.
- New York Red Bulls kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- New York City FC W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- New York Red Bulls 1–1 New York City FC
7Context
New York City FC
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
New York Red Bulls
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Yankee Stadium, New York · Referee: J. Freemon
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model makes New York City FC the most likely result at 57%. Most likely is not likely — at 57% it does not happen 43% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 55%, and under 2.5 at 45%.
- Will both teams score in New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- New York City FC's reported absences and doubts include A. O'Neill, T. Gray, K. Parks, Talles Magno and 3 others. New York Red Bulls's include J. Marshall-Rutty, A. Marcucci, J. Che, M. Dos Santos and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- New York City FC line up in a 4-2-3-1, New York Red Bulls in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.