Premier League · Regular Season - 5
BournemouthvLiverpool
Bournemouth
Liverpool·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.6–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Bournemouth and Liverpool finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Bou / Liv | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Bournemouth down the side and Liverpool across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Bournemouth40% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Bournemouth the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Bournemouth
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Adli — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Kluivert — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Soler — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- V. Milosavljevic — out (Injury)
- E. J. Kroupi — out (Foot Injury)
- R. Christie — out (Red Card)
- J. Araujo — out (Thigh Injury)
Liverpool
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Kerkez — doubtful (Injury)
- B. Barcola — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Leoni — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Elliott — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Ekitike — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- F. Chiesa — out (Back Injury)
- C. Bradley — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Bajcetic — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BournemouthDDDLD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Brentford 2–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Newcastle 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Everton 1–1(xG 2.1–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Manchester City 1–2(xG 0.7–2.3)
- Sun 24 May · A v Nottingham Forest 1–1
LiverpoolDWDDD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Fulham 0–0
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Ipswich 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Nottingham Forest 2–2(xG 1.6–2.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Newcastle 2–2(xG 3.0–1.6)
- Sun 24 May · H v Brentford 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Bournemouth have won 0 of their last 5.
- Bournemouth have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Bournemouth's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Bournemouth's last 5.
- Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Liverpool have won 1 of their last 5.
- Liverpool have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Liverpool's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Liverpool's last 5.
- Liverpool kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Bournemouth have won 2, Liverpool 6, with 0 drawn.
- Bournemouth W–D–L
- 2–0–6
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 8
- Both scored
- 3 of 8
- Bournemouth 3–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 4–2 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–2 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–0 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool
- Liverpool 3–1 Bournemouth
- Bournemouth 1–0 Liverpool
- Liverpool 9–0 Bournemouth
7Context
Bournemouth
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Liverpool
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset · Referee: Michael Oliver, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
- Our model makes Bournemouth the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
- Bournemouth's reported absences and doubts include A. Adli, J. Kluivert, J. Soler, V. Milosavljevic and 3 others. Liverpool's include J. Gomez, M. Kerkez, B. Barcola, G. Leoni and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
- Bournemouth line up in a 4-2-3-1, Liverpool in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Liverpool?
- In their last 8 meetings, Bournemouth have won 2, Liverpool 6, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.