Premier League · Regular Season - 5
LeedsvCrystal Palace
Leeds
Crystal Palace·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Leeds and Crystal Palace finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Lee / Cry | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Leeds down the side and Crystal Palace across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Leeds43% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Leeds the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Leeds
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- H. Wilson — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Rodon — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Gudmundsson — out (Hamstring Injury)
- W. Gnonto — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Gruev — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Joseph — out (Knee Injury)
Crystal Palace
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- I. Sarr — out (Groin Injury)
- D. Henderson — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Disasi — out (Red Card)
- E. Nketiah — out (Injury)
- H. Ahanor — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- B. Chilwell — doubtful (Hamstring Injury)
- C. Riad — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Mateta — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LeedsWDDWL
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Newcastle 4–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Brighton 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Brentford 1–1(xG 1.5–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Nottingham Forest 1–0
- Sun 24 May · A v West Ham 0–3
Crystal PalaceLWLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Ipswich 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Fulham 3–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Manchester City 1–4(xG 0.6–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Everton 0–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Arsenal 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Leeds have won 2 of their last 5.
- Leeds have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Leeds's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Leeds's last 5.
- Leeds kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Crystal Palace have won 1 of their last 5.
- Crystal Palace have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Crystal Palace's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Crystal Palace's last 5.
- Crystal Palace kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Leeds have won 2, Crystal Palace 2, with 2 drawn.
- Leeds W–D–L
- 2–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 6
- Both scored
- 3 of 6
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Leeds
- Leeds 4–1 Crystal Palace
- Leeds 1–5 Crystal Palace
- Crystal Palace 2–1 Leeds
- Crystal Palace 0–0 Leeds
- Leeds 1–0 Crystal Palace
7Context
Leeds
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Crystal Palace
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire · Referee: Adam Herczeg, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
- Our model makes Leeds the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
- Leeds's reported absences and doubts include H. Wilson, J. Rodon, G. Gudmundsson, W. Gnonto and 2 others. Crystal Palace's include I. Sarr, D. Henderson, A. Disasi, E. Nketiah and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Leeds vs Crystal Palace?
- Leeds line up in a 3-5-2, Crystal Palace in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Crystal Palace?
- In their last 6 meetings, Leeds have won 2, Crystal Palace 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.