Premier League · Regular Season - 5
Manchester CityvSunderland
Manchester City
Sunderland·
5 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%). Manchester City and Sunderland finish on some other score 65% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Man / Sun | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Manchester City down the side and Sunderland across. These 97.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Manchester City73% · Match result
- Over 2.558% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Manchester City the most likely of the three results, at 73% (we would not be surprised by anything from 64% to 82%). Most likely is not likely: at 73% this result does not happen 27% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Manchester City
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Foden — out (Red Card)
- M. Nunes — out (Injury)
- J. Doku — out (Calf Injury)
- E. Fernandez — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- Allan Elias — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Savinho — out (Transfer negotiations)
Sunderland
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Mandava — out (Red Card)
- R. Mundle — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Diarra — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Adingra — out (Foot Injury)
- D. Methalie — out (Yellow Cards)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Manchester CityWWWWL
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Manchester United 1–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Coventry 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Crystal Palace 4–1(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Bournemouth 2–1(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Sun 24 May · H v Aston Villa 1–2
SunderlandLDWLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Arsenal 0–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Brentford 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Fulham 1–0(xG 1.8–0.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Ipswich 1–2
- Sun 24 May · H v Chelsea 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Manchester City have won 4 of their last 5.
- Manchester City have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Manchester City's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Manchester City's last 5.
- Manchester City kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Sunderland have won 2 of their last 5.
- Sunderland have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sunderland's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sunderland's last 5.
- Sunderland kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Manchester City have won 1, Sunderland 0, with 1 drawn.
- Manchester City W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 0 of 2
- Sunderland 0–0 Manchester City
- Manchester City 3–0 Sunderland
7Context
Manchester City
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Sunderland
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Etihad Stadium, Manchester · Referee: Robert Jones, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Manchester City vs Sunderland?
- Our model makes Manchester City the most likely result at 73%. Most likely is not likely — at 73% it does not happen 27% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Sunderland?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Manchester City vs Sunderland?
- Manchester City's reported absences and doubts include P. Foden, M. Nunes, J. Doku, E. Fernandez and 2 others. Sunderland's include R. Mandava, R. Mundle, H. Diarra, S. Adingra and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Manchester City vs Sunderland?
- Manchester City line up in a 4-2-3-1, Sunderland in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Sunderland?
- In their last 2 meetings, Manchester City have won 1, Sunderland 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 0.