Premier League · Regular Season - 5
FulhamvManchester United
Fulham
Manchester United·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Fulham and Manchester United finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ful / Man | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Fulham down the side and Manchester United across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Manchester United39% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Manchester United the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Fulham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Tete — out (Concussion)
- Manuel Angel — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. De Fougerolles — out (Injury)
- H. Larsson — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- T. Cairney — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Andersen — out (Red Card)
Manchester United
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- B. Sesko — out (Inactive)
- L. Shaw — out (Injury)
- M. Mount — out (Foot Injury)
- T. Heaton — out (Injury)
- A. Diallo — out (Injury)
- C. Baleba — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. de Ligt — out (Back Injury)
- M. Ugarte — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FulhamDLLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Liverpool 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Crystal Palace 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Sunderland 0–1(xG 0.8–1.8)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Chelsea 2–3(xG 1.3–2.2)
- Sun 24 May · H v Newcastle 2–0
Manchester UnitedLDWLW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Manchester City 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Everton 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ipswich 5–2(xG 4.6–2.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Hull City 0–2
- Sun 24 May · A v Brighton 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Fulham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fulham have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Fulham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Fulham's last 5.
- Fulham kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Manchester United have won 2 of their last 5.
- Manchester United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Manchester United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Manchester United's last 5.
- Manchester United kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Fulham have won 1, Manchester United 6, with 1 drawn.
- Fulham W–D–L
- 1–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 5 of 8
- Manchester United 3–2 Fulham
- Fulham 1–1 Manchester United
- Fulham 0–1 Manchester United
- Manchester United 1–0 Fulham
- Manchester United 1–2 Fulham
- Fulham 0–1 Manchester United
- Manchester United 2–1 Fulham
- Fulham 1–2 Manchester United
7Context
Fulham
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Manchester United
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Craven Cottage, London · Referee: Peter Bankes, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Fulham vs Manchester United?
- Our model makes Manchester United the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Fulham vs Manchester United?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Fulham vs Manchester United?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Fulham vs Manchester United?
- Fulham's reported absences and doubts include K. Tete, Manuel Angel, L. De Fougerolles, H. Larsson and 2 others. Manchester United's include B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Mount, T. Heaton and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Fulham vs Manchester United?
- Fulham line up in a 4-2-3-1, Manchester United in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Manchester United?
- In their last 8 meetings, Fulham have won 1, Manchester United 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.