Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5

AuxerrevStade Brestois 29

·

2 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.4–1.2 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Auxerre goals down the side, Stade Brestois 29 across
Aux / Sta012345
089520.60.2
11013830.90.2
279520.60.1
33421.00.30.1
4110.80.30.10.0
50.30.40.20.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Auxerre down the side and Stade Brestois 29 across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 76%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 52%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 29%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Auxerre41% · Match result
  • Over 2.552% · Goals
  • Yes54% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Auxerre the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 52%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home41%vs—
Draw27%vs—
Away32%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.552%vs—
Under 2.548%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.576%vs—
Under 1.524%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.529%vs—
Under 3.571%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes54%vs—
No46%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Auxerre

Confirmed · 3-4-3

  • T. Siwe — out (Muscle Injury)
  • A. Tuanzebe — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • F. Oppegard — out (Illness)
  • S. Fofana — out (Groin Injury)
  • E. Legros — doubtful (Injury)
  • R. Labeau Lascary — out (Loan agreement)
  • T. Bair — out (Suspended)
  • Wei Xiangxin — out (Inactive)
  • F. Sierralta — out (Injury)
  • M. Senaya — out (Injury)
  • B. Okoh — out (Knee Injury)
  • C. Makosso — out (Red Card)
  • A. Diousse — out (Knee Injury)

Stade Brestois 29

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • N. Edjouma — out (Muscle Injury)
  • M. Balde — out (Injury)
  • J. Bourgault — out (Knee Injury)
  • M. Diambou — out (Ankle Injury)
  • B. Chardonnet — out (Calf Injury)
  • R. Cagnon — out (Shoulder Injury)
  • H. Magnetti — out (Muscle Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AuxerreWLLLW

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Nice 1–0
  • Fri 4 Sep · A v Lyon 1–3
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Angers 1–3(xG 1.3–1.6)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Lens 2–5
  • Sun 17 May · A v Lille 2–0

Stade Brestois 29LWDDD

  • Sun 13 Sep · H v Paris Saint Germain 0–1
  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Le Havre 2–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Toulouse 2–2(xG 2.7–1.1)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Le Mans 2–2
  • Sun 17 May · H v Angers 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Auxerre
  • Auxerre have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Auxerre have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Auxerre's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of Auxerre's last 5.
  • Auxerre kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Stade Brestois 29 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Stade Brestois 29's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Stade Brestois 29's last 5.
  • Stade Brestois 29 kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 6 meetings, Auxerre have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 2, with 2 drawn.

Auxerre W–D–L
2–2–2
Over 2.5
3 of 6
Both scored
2 of 6
  • Auxerre 3–0 Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 2–0 Auxerre
  • Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Auxerre
  • Auxerre 3–0 Stade Brestois 29
  • Stade Brestois 29 1–0 Auxerre
  • Auxerre 1–1 Stade Brestois 29

7Context

Auxerre

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Stade Brestois 29

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre · Referee: Guillaume Paradis, France

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model makes Auxerre the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 52%, and under 2.5 at 48%.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre's reported absences and doubts include T. Siwe, A. Tuanzebe, F. Oppegard, S. Fofana and 9 others. Stade Brestois 29's include N. Edjouma, M. Balde, J. Bourgault, M. Diambou and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Auxerre line up in a 3-4-3, Stade Brestois 29 in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29?
In their last 6 meetings, Auxerre have won 2, Stade Brestois 29 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.