Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
NicevLille
Nice
Lille·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Nice and Lille finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Nic / Lil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Nice down the side and Lille across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 30%.
What we think
- Lille44% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lille the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 45%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (52%).
For comparison, the market gives Lille a 45% chance. Our model makes it 44%.
2Market
Open: 28% home · 27% draw · 45% away
Now: 28% home · 27% draw · 45% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Nice
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Mendy — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Boudaoui — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Amoura — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Sanson — out (Surgery)
- A. Abdi — out (Surgery)
- A. Witsel — out (Inactive)
- T. Moffi — out (Inactive)
- M. Bombito — out (Leg Injury)
- L. Abergel — out (Knee Injury)
Lille
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. Nianzou — out (Knock)
- M. Fernandez-Pardo — out (Transfer negotiations)
- L. Srdanovic — out (Inactive)
- S. Diaoune — out (Inactive)
- B. Andre — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Igamane — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NiceLDLDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Auxerre 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Le Mans 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Paris FC 0–3(xG 0.6–2.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Lorient 0–0
- Fri 29 May · H v Saint Etienne 4–1
LilleWWDWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Estac Troyes 2–0
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Toulouse 1–0
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–2(xG 1.1–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Angers 2–0(xG 1.2–2.0)
- Sun 17 May · H v Auxerre 0–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Nice have won 1 of their last 5.
- Nice have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Nice's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Nice's last 5.
- Nice kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5.
- Lille have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Lille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lille's last 5.
- Lille kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Nice have won 4, Lille 2, with 4 drawn.
- Nice W–D–L
- 4–4–2
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Lille 0–0 Nice
- Nice 2–0 Lille
- Lille 2–1 Nice
- Nice 2–2 Lille
- Lille 2–2 Nice
- Nice 1–1 Lille
- Nice 1–0 Lille
- Lille 1–2 Nice
- Nice 1–3 Lille
- Lille 0–4 Nice
7Context
Nice
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Lille
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Allianz Riviera, Nice · Referee: Willy Delajod, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Nice vs Lille?
- Our model makes Lille the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Nice vs Lille?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Nice vs Lille?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Nice vs Lille?
- Nice's reported absences and doubts include A. Mendy, H. Boudaoui, M. Amoura, M. Sanson and 5 others. Lille's include T. Nianzou, M. Fernandez-Pardo, L. Srdanovic, S. Diaoune and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Nice vs Lille?
- Nice line up in a 3-4-2-1, Lille in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Lille?
- In their last 10 meetings, Nice have won 4, Lille 2, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.