Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5

MarseillevParis Saint Germain

·

1 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.4–1.9 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Marseille and Paris Saint Germain finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Marseille goals down the side, Paris Saint Germain across
Mar / Par012345
0477420.8
15109631
2377420.8
323320.90.4
40.6110.70.30.1
50.20.30.30.20.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Marseille down the side and Paris Saint Germain across. These 98.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.8% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 82%, market 89%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 62%, market 71%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 38%, market 50%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 38% against 50%.

What we think

  • Paris Saint Germain50% · Match result
  • Over 2.562% · Goals
  • Yes60% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 62% against a market price of 50% — 12 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.6 goals.
  • 19 players reported unavailable — 7 for Marseille, 12 for Paris Saint Germain.

Our forecast makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 71% — a 9 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Paris Saint Germain a 68% chance. Our model makes it 50%.

Paris Saint GermainModel 50% [40%–60%]Market 68%
Paris Saint Germain:, our forecast 50%, between 40% and 60%, market 68%

2Market

Open: 14% home · 18% draw · 68% away

Now: 14% home · 18% draw · 68% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home27%vs14%+13pp
Draw23%vs18%+5pp
Away50%vs68%−18pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.562%vs71%−9pp
Under 2.538%vs29%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.582%vs89%−7pp
Under 1.518%vs11%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.538%vs50%−12pp
Under 3.562%vs50%+12pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes60%vs63%−3pp
No40%vs37%+3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Marseille

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • A. Koum Mbondo — out (Inactive)
  • T. Nnadi — out (Injury)
  • G. Kondogbia — out (Injury)
  • I. Paixao — out (Muscle Injury)
  • Q. Timber — out (Yellow Cards)
  • F. Moumbagna — out (Injury)
  • L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)

Paris Saint Germain

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • Q. Ndjantou — out (Inactive)
  • A. Hakimi — out (Thigh Injury)
  • I. Zabarnyi — out (Coach's decision)
  • S. Mayulu — out (Inactive)
  • A. Longoni — out (Muscle Injury)
  • L. Digne — out (Inactive)
  • D. Doue — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
  • J. Neves — out (Illness)
  • N. Mendes — out (Red Card)
  • I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
  • O. Dembele — out (Rest)
  • B. Barcola — out (Inactive)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

MarseilleLLLWW

  • Fri 11 Sep · A v Rennes 0–1
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Paris FC 2–3
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Monaco 0–2(xG 1.2–1.5)
  • Fri 21 Aug · H v Strasbourg 4–0
  • Sun 17 May · H v Rennes 3–1

Paris Saint GermainWLDDL

  • Sun 13 Sep · A v Stade Brestois 29 1–0
  • Fri 4 Sep · H v Monaco 1–2
  • Fri 28 Aug · A v Lille 2–2(xG 1.3–1.1)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Rennes 2–2(xG 2.2–0.9)
  • Sun 17 May · A v Paris FC 1–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Marseille
  • Marseille have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Marseille have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Marseille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Marseille's last 5.
  • Marseille kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Paris Saint Germain have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5.
  • Paris Saint Germain kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, Marseille have won 1, Paris Saint Germain 8, with 1 drawn.

Marseille W–D–L
1–1–8
Over 2.5
6 of 10
Both scored
2 of 10
  • Paris Saint Germain 5–0 Marseille
  • Marseille 1–0 Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Marseille
  • Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint Germain
  • Marseille 0–2 Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain 4–0 Marseille
  • Marseille 0–3 Paris Saint Germain
  • Paris Saint Germain 1–0 Marseille
  • Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Marseille
  • Marseille 0–0 Paris Saint Germain

7Context

Marseille

Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d

Paris Saint Germain

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille · Referee: Francois Letexier

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
How many goals are expected in Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Marseille's reported absences and doubts include A. Koum Mbondo, T. Nnadi, G. Kondogbia, I. Paixao and 3 others. Paris Saint Germain's include Q. Ndjantou, A. Hakimi, I. Zabarnyi, S. Mayulu and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain?
Marseille line up in a 4-2-3-1, Paris Saint Germain in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Paris Saint Germain?
In their last 10 meetings, Marseille have won 1, Paris Saint Germain 8, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.