Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

Bayer LeverkusenvRB Leipzig

·

2 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–12.0–1.4 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Bayer Leverkusen goals down the side, RB Leipzig across
Bay / RB 012345
044320.50.2
16107310.3
2797310.3
346420.70.2
423210.40.1
50.910.90.40.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Bayer Leverkusen down the side and RB Leipzig across. These 98.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.9% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 83%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 62%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 39%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Bayer Leverkusen51% · Match result
  • Over 2.562% · Goals
  • Yes61% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely of the three results, at 51% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 51% this result does not happen 49% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home51%vs—
Draw22%vs—
Away27%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.562%vs—
Under 2.538%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.583%vs—
Under 1.517%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.539%vs—
Under 3.561%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes61%vs—
No39%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Bayer Leverkusen

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • G. Doue — out (Muscle Injury)
  • N. Tella — out (Injury)
  • M. Terrier — out (Muscle Injury)
  • K. Eichhorn — out (Illness)
  • M. Culbreath — out (Injury)
  • E. Ben Seghir — out (Thigh Injury)

RB Leipzig

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • M. Guiu — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • O. Nyland — out (Foot Injury)
  • Romulo Cardoso — out (Knee Injury)
  • B. Gruda — out (Ankle Injury)
  • V. Gebel — out (Knee Injury)
  • R. Reitz — out (Muscle Injury)
  • A. Ouedraogo — out (Shoulder Injury)
  • C. Baumgartner — out (Thigh Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Bayer LeverkusenDWLDL

  • Sat 12 Sep · A v FC Augsburg 2–2
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Union Berlin 4–0
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v SV Elversberg 2–3(xG 1.9–1.1)
  • Sat 16 May · H v Hamburger SV 1–1
  • Sat 9 May · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–3

RB LeipzigWLWLW

  • Sun 13 Sep · H v Hamburger SV 5–0
  • Sat 5 Sep · A v Werder Bremen 1–3
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0(xG 4.0–0.9)
  • Sat 16 May · A v SC Freiburg 1–4
  • Sat 9 May · H v FC St. Pauli 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Bayer Leverkusen have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 5.
  • Bayer Leverkusen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5.
  • RB Leipzig have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 5 of RB Leipzig's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of RB Leipzig's last 5.
  • RB Leipzig kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, RB Leipzig 3, with 1 drawn.

Bayer Leverkusen W–D–L
6–1–3
Over 2.5
7 of 10
Both scored
7 of 10
  • Bayer Leverkusen 4–1 RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen
  • RB Leipzig 2–2 Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen 2–3 RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen 3–2 RB Leipzig
  • Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig 2–0 Bayer Leverkusen
  • Bayer Leverkusen 0–1 RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen

7Context

Bayer Leverkusen

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

RB Leipzig

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

BayArena, Leverkusen · Referee: Robert Schroder

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely result at 51%. Most likely is not likely — at 51% it does not happen 49% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen's reported absences and doubts include G. Doue, N. Tella, M. Terrier, K. Eichhorn and 2 others. RB Leipzig's include M. Guiu, O. Nyland, Romulo Cardoso, B. Gruda and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?
Bayer Leverkusen line up in a 3-4-2-1, RB Leipzig in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig?
In their last 10 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, RB Leipzig 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.