Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
SC Paderborn 07v1899 Hoffenheim
SC Paderborn 07
1899 Hoffenheim·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). SC Paderborn 07 and 1899 Hoffenheim finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| SC / 189 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 2 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, SC Paderborn 07 down the side and 1899 Hoffenheim across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 49%.
What we think
- 1899 Hoffenheim42% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 51% — 12 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.5 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 10 players reported unavailable — 6 for SC Paderborn 07, 4 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Our forecast makes 1899 Hoffenheim the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, against the market’s 70% — a 9 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 57% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 23% home · 21% draw · 57% away
Now: 23% home · 21% draw · 57% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
SC Paderborn 07
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- S. Klaas — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Michel — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Eickel — out (Back Injury)
- N. Awortwie-Grant — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Gotze — out (Concussion)
- T. Gayret — out (Knee Injury)
1899 Hoffenheim
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- Bernardo — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Prass — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Lemperle — out (Red Card)
- F. Asllani — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SC Paderborn 07LLDWD
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v SC Freiburg 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v FSV Mainz 05 0–0(xG 0.8–1.2)
- Mon 25 May · H v VfL Wolfsburg 2–1
- Thu 21 May · A v VfL Wolfsburg 0–0
1899 HoffenheimWLLLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v VfB Stuttgart 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Borussia Dortmund 2–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v 1. FC Köln 2–3(xG 1.8–1.7)
- Sat 16 May · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Werder Bremen 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 5.
- SC Paderborn 07 have scored in 1 of their last 5.
- 2 of SC Paderborn 07's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of SC Paderborn 07's last 5.
- SC Paderborn 07 kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2 of their last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 5.
- 1899 Hoffenheim kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
SC Paderborn 07
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn · Referee: Daniel Schlager
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- SC Paderborn 07's reported absences and doubts include S. Klaas, S. Michel, L. Eickel, N. Awortwie-Grant and 2 others. 1899 Hoffenheim's include Bernardo, A. Prass, T. Lemperle, F. Asllani. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- SC Paderborn 07 line up in a 3-5-2, 1899 Hoffenheim in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.