Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
FC Schalke 04vSV Elversberg
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). FC Schalke 04 and SV Elversberg finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| FC / SV | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, FC Schalke 04 down the side and SV Elversberg across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- FC Schalke 0439% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes FC Schalke 04 the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Schalke 04
Lineup not yet confirmed
- D. Ljubicic — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Lasme — out (Calf Injury)
- A. Gantenbein — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Karaman — out (Hip Injury)
- R. Schallenberg — out (Red Card)
- T. Kalas — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- E. Hojlund — out (Heel Injury)
SV Elversberg
Lineup not yet confirmed
- T. Zimmerschied — out (Back Injury)
- L. Seifert — out (Ankle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC Schalke 04WDLLD
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Union Berlin 3–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bayern München 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v FC Augsburg 0–3(xG 1.5–3.5)
- Sat 27 May · A v RB Leipzig 2–4
- Sat 20 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
SV ElversbergLWWLD
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Bayern München 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–2(xG 1.1–1.9)
- Mon 26 May · H v FC Heidenheim 1–2
- Thu 22 May · A v FC Heidenheim 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Schalke 04 have won 1 of their last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of FC Schalke 04's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Schalke 04's last 5.
- FC Schalke 04 kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 5.
- SV Elversberg have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of SV Elversberg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of SV Elversberg's last 5.
- SV Elversberg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Schalke 04
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
SV Elversberg
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen · Referee: Robin Braun
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?
- Our model makes FC Schalke 04 the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg?
- FC Schalke 04's reported absences and doubts include D. Ljubicic, B. Lasme, A. Gantenbein, K. Karaman and 3 others. SV Elversberg's include T. Zimmerschied, L. Seifert. Each player's status is in the availability section above.