Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

Borussia MönchengladbachvFSV Mainz 05

·

3 – 4 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.5–1.4 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05 finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Borussia Mönchengladbach goals down the side, FSV Mainz 05 across
Bor / FSV012345
067520.90.2
18128410.4
269631.00.3
334310.50.1
41210.50.20.1
50.40.50.40.20.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Borussia Mönchengladbach down the side and FSV Mainz 05 across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 79%, market 85%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 56%, market 65%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 33%, market 44%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 44%.

What we think

  • Borussia Mönchengladbach40% · Match result
  • Over 2.556% · Goals
  • Yes58% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 67% against a market price of 56% — 11 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 79% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.8 goals, and 3.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.4 goals.
  • 17 players reported unavailable — 10 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 7 for FSV Mainz 05.

Our forecast makes Borussia Mönchengladbach the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes FSV Mainz 05 the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 65% — a 9 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives FSV Mainz 05 a 44% chance. Our model makes it 34%.

FSV Mainz 05Model 34% [28%–40%]Market 44%
FSV Mainz 05:, our forecast 34%, between 28% and 40%, market 44%

2Market

Open: 31% home · 25% draw · 44% away

Now: 31% home · 25% draw · 44% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home40%vs31%+9pp
Draw26%vs25%+1pp
Away34%vs44%−10pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.556%vs65%−9pp
Under 2.544%vs35%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs85%−6pp
Under 1.521%vs15%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.533%vs44%−11pp
Under 3.567%vs56%+11pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes58%vs67%−9pp
No42%vs33%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • Z. Uno — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • D. Hashioka — out (Neck Injury)
  • H. Bolin — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
  • T. Kleindienst — out (Red Card)
  • N. Kuhn — out (Muscle Injury)
  • F. C. Chiarodia — out (Muscle Injury)
  • E. Leopold — out (Knee Injury)
  • Y. Konoplya — out (Knee Injury)
  • T. Cvancara — out (Groin Injury)
  • J. Castrop — out (Shoulder Injury)

FSV Mainz 05

Confirmed · 3-5-2

  • R. Zentner — out (Hand Injury)
  • S. Widmer — out (Knee Injury)
  • B. Hollerbach — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • D. Kohr — out (Foot Injury)
  • Silas — out (Broken shinbone)
  • P. Nebel — out (Muscle Injury)
  • E. Martel — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Borussia MönchengladbachLLLWL

  • Sat 12 Sep · A v SC Freiburg 0–5
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v SV Elversberg 3–4
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v RB Leipzig 0–3(xG 0.9–4.0)
  • Sat 16 May · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 4–0
  • Sat 9 May · A v FC Augsburg 1–3

FSV Mainz 05LWDWL

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Hamburger SV 5–0
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v SC Paderborn 07 0–0(xG 1.2–0.8)
  • Sat 16 May · A v FC Heidenheim 2–0
  • Sun 10 May · H v Union Berlin 1–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 5 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 5.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 5.
  • FSV Mainz 05 have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of FSV Mainz 05's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of FSV Mainz 05's last 5.
  • FSV Mainz 05 kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 3, with 6 drawn.

Borussia Mönchengladbach W–D–L
1–6–3
Over 2.5
3 of 10
Both scored
7 of 10
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 0–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 4–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 FSV Mainz 05
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–1 FSV Mainz 05
  • FSV Mainz 05 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach

7Context

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

FSV Mainz 05

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach · Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours FSV Mainz 05 at 44%.
How many goals are expected in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's reported absences and doubts include Z. Uno, D. Hashioka, H. Bolin, T. Kleindienst and 6 others. FSV Mainz 05's include R. Zentner, S. Widmer, B. Hollerbach, D. Kohr and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05?
Borussia Mönchengladbach line up in a 3-4-2-1, FSV Mainz 05 in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and FSV Mainz 05?
In their last 10 meetings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, FSV Mainz 05 3, with 6 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.