Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4

Eintracht FrankfurtvSC Freiburg

·

2 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.7–1.3 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Eintracht Frankfurt goals down the side, SC Freiburg across
Ein / SC 012345
056420.50.1
1811730.90.2
279630.80.2
346410.50.1
42220.70.20.1
50.70.80.50.20.10.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Eintracht Frankfurt down the side and SC Freiburg across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 80%, no price captured yet
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 58%, no price captured yet
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 35%, no price captured yet

What we think

  • Eintracht Frankfurt48% · Match result
  • Over 2.558% · Goals
  • Yes59% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Eintracht Frankfurt the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home48%vs—
Draw24%vs—
Away28%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.558%vs—
Under 2.542%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs—
Under 1.520%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.535%vs—
Under 3.565%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes59%vs—
No41%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Eintracht Frankfurt

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • J. Maluze — out (Thigh Injury)
  • F. Chaibi — out (Illness)
  • A. Knauff — out (Muscle Injury)
  • O. Hojlund — out (Hip Injury)
  • M. Pimpong — doubtful (Illness)
  • J. Ngankam — out (Injury)
  • H. Larsson — out (Muscle Injury)
  • R. Doan — out (Muscle Injury)
  • N. Collins — out (Back Injury)

SC Freiburg

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • R. Yamamoto — out (Injury)
  • P. Osterhage — out (Muscle Injury)
  • F. Muslija — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Eintracht FrankfurtWLDDL

  • Sat 12 Sep · A v FSV Mainz 05 3–1
  • Sun 6 Sep · H v FC Augsburg 1–4
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Union Berlin 3–3(xG 1.4–1.9)
  • Sat 16 May · H v VfB Stuttgart 2–2
  • Fri 8 May · A v Borussia Dortmund 2–3

SC FreiburgWWWWL

  • Sat 12 Sep · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 5–0
  • Sat 5 Sep · A v SC Paderborn 07 1–0
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Werder Bremen 4–1(xG 1.9–0.5)
  • Sat 16 May · H v RB Leipzig 4–1
  • Sun 10 May · A v Hamburger SV 2–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 5 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Eintracht Frankfurt's last 5.
  • Eintracht Frankfurt kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg have won 4 of their last 5.
  • SC Freiburg have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of SC Freiburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 3 of SC Freiburg's last 5.
  • SC Freiburg kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg 1, with 4 drawn.

Eintracht Frankfurt W–D–L
5–4–1
Over 2.5
6 of 10
Both scored
7 of 10
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 2–2 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • SC Freiburg 1–3 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 3–3 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 SC Freiburg
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 2–1 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 SC Freiburg
  • SC Freiburg 0–2 Eintracht Frankfurt

7Context

Eintracht Frankfurt

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

SC Freiburg

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main · Referee: Soren Storks

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time.
How many goals are expected in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt's reported absences and doubts include J. Maluze, F. Chaibi, A. Knauff, O. Hojlund and 5 others. SC Freiburg's include R. Yamamoto, P. Osterhage, F. Muslija. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt line up in a 3-4-2-1, SC Freiburg in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
In their last 10 meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg 1, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.