Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
Hamburger SVv1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
1. FC Köln·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ham / 1. | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Hamburger SV down the side and 1. FC Köln across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Hamburger SV45% · Match result
- Over 2.557% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Hamburger SV the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 57%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Hamburger SV
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- M. Vuskovic — out (Doping)
- S. Bornauw — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Amoako — out (Illness)
- M. Muheim — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. S. Lokonga — doubtful (Back Injury)
- A. Rossing-Lelesiit — out (Ankle Injury)
- W. Omari — out (Personal Reasons)
1. FC Köln
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Okon-Engstler — out (Injury)
- S. El Mala — out (Illness)
- L. Waldschmidt — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Sebulonsen — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Dallinga — out (Illness)
- T. Hubers — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Hamburger SVLLLDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v RB Leipzig 0–5
- Sun 6 Sep · H v FSV Mainz 05 0–5
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Borussia Dortmund 0–2(xG 0.7–1.4)
- Sat 16 May · A v Bayer Leverkusen 1–1
- Sun 10 May · H v SC Freiburg 3–2
1. FC KölnDLWLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Werder Bremen 1–1
- Fri 4 Sep · A v VfB Stuttgart 1–4
- Sat 29 Aug · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2(xG 1.7–1.8)
- Sat 16 May · A v Bayern München 1–5
- Sun 10 May · H v FC Heidenheim 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Hamburger SV have won 1 of their last 5.
- Hamburger SV have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Hamburger SV's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Hamburger SV's last 5.
- Hamburger SV kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Köln have won 1 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Köln have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of 1. FC Köln's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of 1. FC Köln's last 5.
- 1. FC Köln kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, 1. FC Köln 1, with 1 drawn.
- Hamburger SV W–D–L
- 0–1–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Hamburger SV 1–1 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln 4–1 Hamburger SV
7Context
Hamburger SV
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
1. FC Köln
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Volksparkstadion, Hamburg · Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
- Our model makes Hamburger SV the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 57%, and under 2.5 at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
- Hamburger SV's reported absences and doubts include M. Vuskovic, S. Bornauw, K. Amoako, M. Muheim and 3 others. 1. FC Köln's include P. Okon-Engstler, S. El Mala, L. Waldschmidt, S. Sebulonsen and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?
- Hamburger SV line up in a 3-4-2-1, 1. FC Köln in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Köln?
- In their last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV have won 0, 1. FC Köln 1, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.