Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
Werder BremenvFC Augsburg
Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg·
3 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg finish on some other score 70% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Wer / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Werder Bremen down the side and FC Augsburg across. These 99.1% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.9% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 33% against 46%.
What we think
- Werder Bremen47% · Match result
- Over 2.556% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 67% against a market price of 54% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 81% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.4 goals, and 3.7 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 8 meetings averaged 2.4 goals.
- 17 players reported unavailable — 10 for Werder Bremen, 7 for FC Augsburg.
Our forecast makes Werder Bremen the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 56%, against the market’s 68% — a 12 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Werder Bremen a 42% chance. Our model makes it 47%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 24% draw · 34% away
Now: 42% home · 24% draw · 34% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Werder Bremen
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. N'Diaye — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Lynen — out (Hip Injury)
- J. Njinmah — out (Thigh Injury)
- N. Stark — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Stage — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Regeer — doubtful (Injury)
- O. Wojcik — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Weiser — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Topp — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Agu — out (Calf Injury)
FC Augsburg
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Kade — out (Calf Injury)
- T. Schnitzer — out (Injury)
- S. Suso — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Sakar — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Jakic — out (Injury)
- S. Mounie — out (Injury)
- T. Breithaupt — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Werder BremenDWLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · A v 1. FC Köln 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v RB Leipzig 3–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v SC Freiburg 1–4(xG 0.5–1.9)
- Sat 16 May · H v Borussia Dortmund 0–2
- Sat 9 May · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 0–1
FC AugsburgDWWLW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Bayer Leverkusen 2–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 4–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Schalke 04 3–0(xG 3.5–1.5)
- Sat 16 May · A v Union Berlin 0–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Werder Bremen have won 1 of their last 5.
- Werder Bremen have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Werder Bremen's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Werder Bremen's last 5.
- Werder Bremen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- FC Augsburg have won 3 of their last 5.
- FC Augsburg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of FC Augsburg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of FC Augsburg's last 5.
- FC Augsburg kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Werder Bremen have won 2, FC Augsburg 4, with 2 drawn.
- Werder Bremen W–D–L
- 2–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 3 of 8
- Werder Bremen 1–3 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 0–0 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 0–2 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 2–2 Werder Bremen
- FC Augsburg 0–3 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 2–0 FC Augsburg
- FC Augsburg 2–1 Werder Bremen
- Werder Bremen 0–1 FC Augsburg
7Context
Werder Bremen
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Augsburg
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Weserstadion, Bremen · Referee: Bastian Dankert
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Our model makes Werder Bremen the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
- How many goals are expected in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 56%, and under 2.5 at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Werder Bremen's reported absences and doubts include M. N'Diaye, S. Lynen, J. Njinmah, N. Stark and 6 others. FC Augsburg's include A. Kade, T. Schnitzer, S. Suso, F. Sakar and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
- Werder Bremen line up in a 4-2-3-1, FC Augsburg in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and FC Augsburg?
- In their last 8 meetings, Werder Bremen have won 2, FC Augsburg 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.