Bundesliga · Regular Season - 4
VfB StuttgartvBorussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Dortmund·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.7–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| VfB / Bor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, VfB Stuttgart down the side and Borussia Dortmund across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Borussia Dortmund39% · Match result
- Over 2.563% · Goals
- Yes63% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 63%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Nartey — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Herwerth — out (Injury)
- L. Jaquez — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Tomas — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Zagadou — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Fuhrich — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Assignon — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Arevalo — out (Back Injury)
- D. Seimen — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Sauer — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Diehl — out (Muscle Injury)
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- F. Mane — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Karetsas — out (Health problems)
- R. Bensebaini — out (Ribs Injury)
- J. Lerma — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Konstantelias — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Inacio — out (Red Card)
- N. Schlotterbeck — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kaba — out (Injury)
- E. Can — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VfB StuttgartLWLDW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 1–2
- Fri 4 Sep · H v 1. FC Köln 4–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Bayern München 1–5(xG 0.9–3.9)
- Sat 16 May · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
- Sat 9 May · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–1
Borussia DortmundWWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v SC Paderborn 07 3–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Hamburger SV 2–0(xG 1.4–0.7)
- Sat 16 May · A v Werder Bremen 2–0
- Fri 8 May · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 3–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 5 of their last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Borussia Dortmund's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Borussia Dortmund's last 5.
- Borussia Dortmund kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund 4, with 2 drawn.
- VfB Stuttgart W–D–L
- 4–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB Stuttgart
- Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund
- VfB Stuttgart 3–3 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 5–0 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund 2–1 VfB Stuttgart
7Context
VfB Stuttgart
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Borussia Dortmund
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
MHPArena, Stuttgart · Referee: Tobias Stieler
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Our model makes Borussia Dortmund the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 63%, and under 2.5 at 37%.
- Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 63% chance, against 37% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
- VfB Stuttgart's reported absences and doubts include N. Nartey, M. Herwerth, L. Jaquez, T. Tomas and 7 others. Borussia Dortmund's include F. Mane, K. Karetsas, R. Bensebaini, J. Lerma and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
- VfB Stuttgart line up in a 3-4-2-1, Borussia Dortmund in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund?
- In their last 10 meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Borussia Dortmund 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.