Serie A · Regular Season - 5

AC MilanvLecce

·

3 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

3–01.9–0.7 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–0 (14%), then 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%). AC Milan and Lecce finish on some other score 62% of the time. We show 3–0 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, AC Milan goals down the side, Lecce across
AC / Lec012345
08520.40.10.0
1141030.80.10.0
214930.70.10.0
38620.50.10.0
4430.90.20.00.0
511.00.30.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AC Milan down the side and Lecce across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 75%, market 82%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 51%, market 60%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 28%, market 37%

We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 60%.

What we think

  • AC Milan65% · Match result
  • Over 2.551% · Goals
  • No50% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 72% against a market price of 63% — 9 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 80% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.7 goals, and 3.7 expected across the 6 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 3.0 goals.
  • 12 players reported unavailable — 6 for AC Milan, 6 for Lecce.

Our forecast makes AC Milan the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 77%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 60% — a 9 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives AC Milan a 77% chance. Our model makes it 65%.

AC MilanModel 65% [58%–71%]Market 77%
AC Milan:, our forecast 65%, between 58% and 71%, market 77%

2Market

Open: 77% home · 15% draw · 7% away

Now: 77% home · 15% draw · 7% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home65%vs77%−12pp
Draw22%vs15%+7pp
Away13%vs7%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.551%vs60%−9pp
Under 2.549%vs40%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.575%vs82%−7pp
Under 1.525%vs18%+7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.528%vs37%−9pp
Under 3.572%vs63%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes50%vs44%+6pp
No50%vs56%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

AC Milan

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • S. Gimenez — out (Transfer negotiations)
  • M. Gabbia — out (Ankle Injury)
  • C. Nkunku — out (Inactive)
  • F. Tomori — out (Transfer negotiations)
  • R. Leao — out (Muscle Injury)
  • Y. Fofana — out (Transfer negotiations)

Lecce

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • M. Berisha — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • Tiago Gabriel — out (Injury)
  • W. Geubbels — out (Ankle Injury)
  • O. Gandelman — out (Inactive)
  • L. Banda — out (Inactive)
  • A. Gallo — doubtful (Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AC MilanDDWWL

  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Lazio 2–2(xG 1.1–2.0)
  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Juventus 1–1
  • Fri 28 Aug · H v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.1–0.8)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Torino 2–1(xG 2.1–1.3)
  • Sun 24 May · H v Cagliari 1–2

LecceWLLWW

  • Sun 13 Sep · H v Monza 3–2(xG 1.1–2.8)
  • Mon 7 Sep · A v Cagliari 0–1
  • Mon 31 Aug · H v AS Roma 0–4(xG 0.7–3.4)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v Venezia 2–0(xG 2.7–2.0)
  • Sun 24 May · H v Genoa 1–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

AC Milan
  • AC Milan have won 2 of their last 5.
  • AC Milan have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of AC Milan's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of AC Milan's last 5.
  • AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Lecce
  • Lecce have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Lecce have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Lecce's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Lecce's last 5.
  • Lecce kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 8 meetings, AC Milan have won 6, Lecce 0, with 2 drawn.

AC Milan W–D–L
6–2–0
Over 2.5
5 of 8
Both scored
3 of 8
  • AC Milan 1–0 Lecce
  • Lecce 0–2 AC Milan
  • Lecce 2–3 AC Milan
  • AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
  • AC Milan 3–0 Lecce
  • Lecce 2–2 AC Milan
  • AC Milan 2–0 Lecce
  • Lecce 2–2 AC Milan

7Context

AC Milan

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Lecce

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milano · Referee: Federico La Penna, Italy

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win AC Milan vs Lecce?
Our model makes AC Milan the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.
How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Lecce?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Lecce?
Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for AC Milan vs Lecce?
AC Milan's reported absences and doubts include S. Gimenez, M. Gabbia, C. Nkunku, F. Tomori and 2 others. Lecce's include M. Berisha, Tiago Gabriel, W. Geubbels, O. Gandelman and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for AC Milan vs Lecce?
AC Milan line up in a 3-4-2-1, Lecce in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Lecce?
In their last 8 meetings, AC Milan have won 6, Lecce 0, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.