Serie A · Regular Season - 5
FiorentinavNapoli
Fiorentina
Napoli·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%). Fiorentina and Napoli finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Fio / Nap | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Fiorentina down the side and Napoli across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 30%.
What we think
- Napoli42% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Napoli the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (52%).
For comparison, the market gives Napoli a 43% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 28% draw · 42% away
Now: 30% home · 28% draw · 43% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Fiorentina
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- C. Inao Oulai — doubtful (Injury)
- F. Croci — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Kean — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Sottil — out (Back Injury)
- F. Parisi — out (Knee Injury)
Napoli
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Spinazzola — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Meret — out (Muscle Injury)
- Alisson Santos — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Anguissa — out (Muscle Injury)
- Giovane — out (Groin Injury)
- B. Badiashile — doubtful (Lacking Match Fitness)
- S. McTominay — out (Heart Problems)
- P. Mazzocchi — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Marianucci — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Folorunsho — out (Inactive)
- A. Buongiorno — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FiorentinaWLLLD
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Venezia 4–2(xG 3.4–0.7)
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Torino 1–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Frosinone 0–3(xG 1.9–1.1)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v AS Roma 0–4(xG 0.3–3.1)
- Fri 22 May · H v Atalanta 1–1
NapoliWLLWW
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Bologna 1–0(xG 1.8–0.3)
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Inter 2–3
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Como 1–2(xG 1.4–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Genoa 2–0
- Sun 24 May · H v Udinese 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Fiorentina have won 1 of their last 5.
- Fiorentina have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Fiorentina's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Fiorentina's last 5.
- Fiorentina kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Napoli have won 3 of their last 5.
- Napoli have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Napoli's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Napoli's last 5.
- Napoli kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Fiorentina have won 2, Napoli 6, with 2 drawn.
- Fiorentina W–D–L
- 2–2–6
- Over 2.5
- 8 of 10
- Both scored
- 7 of 10
- Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 1–3 Napoli
- Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 0–3 Napoli
- Fiorentina 2–2 Napoli
- Napoli 1–3 Fiorentina
- Napoli 1–0 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 0–0 Napoli
- Napoli 2–3 Fiorentina
- Fiorentina 1–2 Napoli
7Context
Fiorentina
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Napoli
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze · Referee: Daniele Doveri, Italy
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Our model makes Napoli the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Fiorentina's reported absences and doubts include C. Inao Oulai, F. Croci, M. Kean, R. Sottil and 1 other. Napoli's include L. Spinazzola, A. Meret, Alisson Santos, F. Anguissa and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Fiorentina line up in a 4-2-3-1, Napoli in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Napoli?
- In their last 10 meetings, Fiorentina have won 2, Napoli 6, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.