Serie A · Regular Season - 5
ParmavGenoa
Parma
Genoa·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.0–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (13%). Parma and Genoa finish on some other score 60% of the time. We show 0–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Par / Gen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Parma down the side and Genoa across. These 99.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Genoa37% · Match result
- Under 2.555% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Genoa the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 45%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Parma
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- A. Bernabe — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Valenti — out (Coach's decision)
- O. Diallo — out (Injury)
- A. Joujou — out (Inactive)
- S. Britschgi — out (Yellow Cards)
- H. Nicolussi Caviglia — out (Groin Injury)
Genoa
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- E. Havel — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Vasquez — out (Red Card)
- L. Venturino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Drameh — out (Inactive)
- H. J. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ParmaLDLLW
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Como 1–2(xG 1.2–3.2)
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Monza 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Juventus 0–2(xG 0.2–1.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cagliari 0–1
- Sun 24 May · H v Sassuolo 1–0
GenoaDLLLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Frosinone 1–1(xG 1.9–2.0)
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Como 1–4
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Lazio 0–1(xG 0.6–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Napoli 0–2
- Sun 24 May · A v Lecce 0–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Parma have won 1 of their last 5.
- Parma have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Parma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Parma's last 5.
- Parma kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Genoa have won 0 of their last 5.
- Genoa have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 1 of Genoa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Genoa's last 5.
- Genoa kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Parma have won 0, Genoa 2, with 2 drawn.
- Parma W–D–L
- 0–2–2
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 4
- Both scored
- 0 of 4
- Parma 0–0 Genoa
- Genoa 0–0 Parma
- Genoa 1–0 Parma
- Parma 0–1 Genoa
7Context
Parma
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Genoa
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · Referee: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Parma vs Genoa?
- Our model makes Genoa the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Parma vs Genoa?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 45%, and under 2.5 at 55%.
- Will both teams score in Parma vs Genoa?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Parma vs Genoa?
- Parma's reported absences and doubts include A. Bernabe, L. Valenti, O. Diallo, A. Joujou and 2 others. Genoa's include E. Havel, J. Vasquez, L. Venturino, C. Drameh and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Parma vs Genoa?
- Parma line up in a 3-4-2-1, Genoa in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Genoa?
- In their last 4 meetings, Parma have won 0, Genoa 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 0.