Serie A · Regular Season - 5
JuventusvAtalanta
Juventus
Atalanta·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Juventus and Atalanta finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Juv / Ata | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Juventus down the side and Atalanta across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 50%.
What we think
- Juventus45% · Match result
- Over 2.551% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Juventus the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Juventus a 57% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 25% draw · 18% away
Now: 57% home · 25% draw · 18% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Juventus
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Grabara — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Locatelli — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Boga — out (Muscle Injury)
- E. Zhegrova — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. M. Sarr — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Milik — out (Inactive)
- W. McKennie — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Cambiaso — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Cabal — out (Thigh Injury)
- F. Gatti — out (Injury)
- J. Ekhator — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Di Gregorio — out (Transfer negotiations)
- K. Yildiz — out (Foot Injury)
- K. Thuram — out (Knee Injury)
Atalanta
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- O. Kossounou — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Gaetano — out (Red Card)
- T. Kristensen — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Rowe — out (Inactive)
- H. Ahanor — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Sulemana — doubtful (Knee Injury)
- K. Sulemana — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Hien — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
JuventusLDWWD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Sassuolo 2–3(xG 1.1–1.0)
- Sun 6 Sep · H v AC Milan 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Parma 2–0(xG 1.7–0.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Frosinone 1–0(xG 2.2–0.4)
- Sun 24 May · A v Torino 2–2
AtalantaLLWWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Cagliari 1–2(xG 1.7–1.3)
- Sat 5 Sep · A v AS Roma 1–2
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.2–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sassuolo 2–1(xG 0.9–2.7)
- Fri 22 May · A v Fiorentina 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Juventus have won 2 of their last 5.
- Juventus have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Juventus's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Juventus's last 5.
- Juventus kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5.
- Atalanta have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Atalanta's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Atalanta's last 5.
- Atalanta kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Juventus have won 2, Atalanta 2, with 6 drawn.
- Juventus W–D–L
- 2–6–2
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Atalanta 0–1 Juventus
- Juventus 1–1 Atalanta
- Juventus 0–4 Atalanta
- Atalanta 1–1 Juventus
- Juventus 2–2 Atalanta
- Atalanta 0–0 Juventus
- Atalanta 0–2 Juventus
- Juventus 3–3 Atalanta
- Atalanta 1–1 Juventus
- Juventus 0–1 Atalanta
7Context
Juventus
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atalanta
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Allianz Stadium, Torino · Referee: Luca Zufferli, Italy
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Juventus vs Atalanta?
- Our model makes Juventus the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- How many goals are expected in Juventus vs Atalanta?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
- Will both teams score in Juventus vs Atalanta?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Juventus vs Atalanta?
- Juventus's reported absences and doubts include K. Grabara, M. Locatelli, J. Boga, E. Zhegrova and 10 others. Atalanta's include O. Kossounou, G. Gaetano, T. Kristensen, J. Rowe and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Juventus vs Atalanta?
- Juventus line up in a 4-2-3-1, Atalanta in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Atalanta?
- In their last 10 meetings, Juventus have won 2, Atalanta 2, with 6 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.