Serie A · Regular Season - 5

UdinesevCagliari

·

0 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–01.4–1.0 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (12%), 2-1 (9%). Udinese and Cagliari finish on some other score 66% of the time.

Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.

Probability of each scoreline, Udinese goals down the side, Cagliari across
Udi / Cag012345
098420.40.1
11213620.60.1
299520.40.1
34420.80.20.0
4220.80.30.10.0
50.40.50.20.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Udinese down the side and Cagliari across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 74%, market 71%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 50%, market 46%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 28%, market 25%

We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 50% against 46%.

What we think

  • Udinese46% · Match result
  • Under 2.550% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Udinese the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 40% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 46% — a 4 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Udinese a 43% chance. Our model makes it 46%.

UdineseModel 46% [40%–53%]Market 43%
Udinese:, our forecast 46%, between 40% and 53%, market 43%

2Market

Open: 43% home · 29% draw · 28% away

Now: 43% home · 29% draw · 28% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home46%vs43%+3pp
Draw27%vs29%−2pp
Away26%vs28%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.550%vs46%+4pp
Under 2.550%vs54%−4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs71%+3pp
Under 1.526%vs29%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.528%vs25%+3pp
Under 3.572%vs75%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs52%+1pp
No47%vs48%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Udinese

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • O. Solet — out (Injury)
  • J. Piotrowski — out (Heart Problems)
  • J. Arizala — out (Thigh Injury)
  • A. Zanoli — out (Knee Injury)
  • G. Chakvetadze — out (Foot Injury)
  • I. Gueye — doubtful (Injury)
  • N. Zaniolo — out (Thigh Injury)
  • M. Palma — out (Muscle Injury)
  • C. Kabasele — out (Red Card)
  • A. Buksa — out (Inactive)

Cagliari

Confirmed · 4-3-1-2

  • J. Pedro — doubtful (Injury)
  • Y. Mina — out (Calf Injury)
  • M. Nzola — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
  • M. Felici — out (Knee Injury)
  • Y. Sugawara — out (Inactive)
  • Kevin — out (Personal Reasons)
  • Y. Trepy — out (Injury)
  • R. Idrissi — out (Knee Injury)
  • S. Esposito — out (Injury)
  • A. Albarracin — out (Inactive)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

UdineseLLWDL

  • Mon 14 Sep · A v Inter 3–5(xG 0.9–3.1)
  • Mon 7 Sep · H v Lazio 1–2
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Monza 3–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Como 1–1
  • Sun 24 May · A v Napoli 0–1

CagliariWWLWW

  • Sat 12 Sep · A v Atalanta 2–1(xG 1.3–1.7)
  • Mon 7 Sep · H v Lecce 1–0
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v Inter 0–1(xG 0.5–3.8)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Parma 1–0
  • Sun 24 May · A v AC Milan 2–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Udinese
  • Udinese have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Udinese have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Udinese's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Udinese's last 5.
  • Udinese kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Cagliari
  • Cagliari have won 4 of their last 5.
  • Cagliari have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Cagliari's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Cagliari's last 5.
  • Cagliari kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 8 meetings, Udinese have won 5, Cagliari 0, with 3 drawn.

Udinese W–D–L
5–3–0
Over 2.5
3 of 8
Both scored
4 of 8
  • Cagliari 0–2 Udinese
  • Udinese 1–1 Cagliari
  • Cagliari 1–2 Udinese
  • Udinese 2–0 Cagliari
  • Udinese 1–1 Cagliari
  • Cagliari 0–0 Udinese
  • Udinese 5–1 Cagliari
  • Cagliari 0–4 Udinese

7Context

Udinese

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Cagliari

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Bluenergy Stadium, Udine · Referee: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our model makes Udinese the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
How many goals are expected in Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Cagliari?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Udinese's reported absences and doubts include O. Solet, J. Piotrowski, J. Arizala, A. Zanoli and 6 others. Cagliari's include J. Pedro, Y. Mina, M. Nzola, M. Felici and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Udinese vs Cagliari?
Udinese line up in a 3-4-2-1, Cagliari in a 4-3-1-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Cagliari?
In their last 8 meetings, Udinese have won 5, Cagliari 0, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.