Serie A · Regular Season - 5

AS RomavInter

·

2 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.2–1.6 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). AS Roma and Inter finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, AS Roma goals down the side, Inter across
AS / Int012345
0798420.5
17129520.6
2576310.4
323210.50.1
40.60.90.70.40.10.0
50.10.20.20.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, AS Roma down the side and Inter across. These 99.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.7% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 77%, market 83%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 54%, market 60%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 31%, market 39%

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 31% against 39%.

What we think

  • Inter45% · Match result
  • Over 2.554% · Goals
  • Yes56% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

  • We make this 69% against a market price of 61% — 8 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 4.0 goals, and 3.7 expected across the 5 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.9 goals.
  • 10 players reported unavailable — 5 for AS Roma, 5 for Inter.

Our forecast makes Inter the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, against the market’s 60% — a 6 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Inter a 37% chance. Our model makes it 45%.

InterModel 45% [38%–53%]Market 37%
Inter:, our forecast 45%, between 38% and 53%, market 37%

2Market

Open: 36% home · 27% draw · 37% away

Now: 36% home · 27% draw · 37% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home29%vs36%−7pp
Draw26%vs27%−1pp
Away45%vs37%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.554%vs60%−6pp
Under 2.546%vs40%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.577%vs83%−6pp
Under 1.523%vs17%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.531%vs39%−8pp
Under 3.569%vs61%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs64%−8pp
No44%vs36%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

AS Roma

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

  • E. Ndicka — out (Illness)
  • D. Rensch — out (Muscle Injury)
  • L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
  • L. Pellegrini — out (Thigh Injury)
  • M. Bah — out (Knee Injury)

Inter

Confirmed · 3-5-2

  • M. Spinacce — out (Inactive)
  • D. Spence — out (Injury)
  • J. Stones — out (Injury)
  • H. Calhanoglu — out (Muscle Injury)
  • H. Mkhitaryan — out (Suspended)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AS RomaWWWWW

  • Mon 14 Sep · A v Torino 2–0(xG 1.9–0.8)
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Atalanta 2–1
  • Mon 31 Aug · A v Lecce 4–0(xG 3.4–0.7)
  • Mon 24 Aug · H v Fiorentina 4–0(xG 3.1–0.3)
  • Sun 24 May · A v Hellas Verona 2–0

InterWWWWD

  • Mon 14 Sep · H v Udinese 5–3(xG 3.1–0.9)
  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Napoli 3–2
  • Sun 30 Aug · A v Cagliari 1–0(xG 3.8–0.5)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Monza 4–1
  • Sat 23 May · A v Bologna 3–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

AS Roma
  • AS Roma have won 5 of their last 5.
  • AS Roma have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of AS Roma's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of AS Roma's last 5.
  • AS Roma kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
Inter
  • Inter have won 4 of their last 5.
  • Inter have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Inter's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Inter's last 5.
  • Inter kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 10 meetings, AS Roma have won 2, Inter 8, with 0 drawn.

AS Roma W–D–L
2–0–8
Over 2.5
5 of 10
Both scored
4 of 10
  • Inter 5–2 AS Roma
  • AS Roma 0–1 Inter
  • Inter 0–1 AS Roma
  • AS Roma 0–1 Inter
  • AS Roma 2–4 Inter
  • Inter 1–0 AS Roma
  • AS Roma 0–2 Inter
  • Inter 1–2 AS Roma
  • Inter 3–1 AS Roma
  • AS Roma 0–3 Inter

7Context

AS Roma

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Inter

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Stadio Olimpico, Roma · Referee: Davide Massa, Italy

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model makes Inter the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
How many goals are expected in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma's reported absences and doubts include E. Ndicka, D. Rensch, L. Balerdi, L. Pellegrini and 1 other. Inter's include M. Spinacce, D. Spence, J. Stones, H. Calhanoglu and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma line up in a 3-4-2-1, Inter in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
In their last 10 meetings, AS Roma have won 2, Inter 8, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.