Serie A · Regular Season - 5
VeneziavLazio
Venezia
Lazio·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Venezia and Lazio finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Ven / Laz | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Venezia down the side and Lazio across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 35%.
What we think
- Lazio39% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 72% against a market price of 65% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.2 goals, and 3.2 expected across the 6 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 2.3 goals.
- 21 players reported unavailable — 11 for Venezia, 10 for Lazio.
Our forecast makes Lazio the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 48%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, against the market’s 56% — a 6 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Lazio a 47% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 27% home · 26% draw · 47% away
Now: 27% home · 26% draw · 47% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Venezia
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- R. Haps — out (Inactive)
- G. Busio — out (Injury)
- M. Dagasso — out (Inactive)
- A. Bella-Kotchap — out (Injury)
- T. Basic — out (Foot Injury)
- M. Moreno — out (Health problems)
- B. Franjic — out (Injury)
- A. Rrahmani — doubtful (Injury)
- A. Duncan — out (Injury)
- M. Sverko — out (Hip Injury)
- A. Adorante — out (Hernia)
Lazio
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- D. Doekhi — out (Hand Injury)
- F. Dele-Bashiru — out (Muscle Injury)
- N. Rovella — out (Injury)
- D. Cataldi — out (Groin Injury)
- J. Sutalo — doubtful (Coach's decision)
- L. Pellegrini — out (Injury)
- A. Marusic — out (Muscle Injury)
- Patric — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Gigot — out (Inactive)
- A. Furlanetto — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VeneziaLLLLL
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Fiorentina 2–4(xG 0.7–3.4)
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Frosinone 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v AC Milan 0–2(xG 0.8–2.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Lecce 0–2(xG 2.0–2.7)
- Sun 25 May · H v Juventus 2–3
LazioDWWWW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v AC Milan 2–2(xG 2.0–1.1)
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Udinese 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Genoa 1–0(xG 1.6–0.6)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Bologna 1–0(xG 0.6–1.8)
- Sat 23 May · H v Pisa 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Venezia have won 0 of their last 5.
- Venezia have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Venezia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Venezia's last 5.
- Venezia kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Lazio have won 4 of their last 5.
- Lazio have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Lazio's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lazio's last 5.
- Lazio kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Venezia have won 0, Lazio 3, with 1 drawn.
- Venezia W–D–L
- 0–1–3
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 4
- Both scored
- 2 of 4
- Venezia 0–0 Lazio
- Lazio 3–1 Venezia
- Lazio 1–0 Venezia
- Venezia 1–3 Lazio
7Context
Venezia
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Lazio
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venezia · Referee: Simone Sozza, Italy
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Venezia vs Lazio?
- Our model makes Lazio the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Venezia vs Lazio?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Venezia vs Lazio?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Venezia vs Lazio?
- Venezia's reported absences and doubts include R. Haps, G. Busio, M. Dagasso, A. Bella-Kotchap and 7 others. Lazio's include D. Doekhi, F. Dele-Bashiru, N. Rovella, D. Cataldi and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Venezia vs Lazio?
- Venezia line up in a 3-5-2, Lazio in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Lazio?
- In their last 4 meetings, Venezia have won 0, Lazio 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.