Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Liga MX5 matches
- FTAtletico Madrid4–0OsasunaLa Ligavexpect 2–1 (2.0–0.9 goals)Over 2.554% likely · pays 1.84Last 10 between them averaged 2.9 goals.
- FTDeportivo La Coruna0–1SevillaLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.1 goals)Over 2.551% likely · pays 2.31Last 10 between them averaged 2.9 goals.
- FTFC Lugano4–1FC ST. GallenSuper Leaguev3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)Over 2.554% likely · pays 1.46Last 10 between them averaged 3.5 goals.
- FTFC Thun2–4Servette FCSuper Leaguev4 notesexpect 2–1 (2.1–1.4 goals)Over 2.564% likely · pays 1.59Last 10 between them averaged 2.8 goals.
- FTAIK Stockholm1–1Mjallby AIFAllsvenskanv2 notesnot checked for this forecast
La Liga
Super League
Allsvenskan1 match
1 match
Serie AWhat the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 2 are fewer than the 17.1 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Atletico Madrid vOsasunaYesWe make it 53% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
- FC Thun vServette FCFC ThunWe make it 52% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
2 recommended, from 49 priced outcomes weighed · 17.1 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
6 of 14 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Elche 2–3 Real Madridour call landedwe called the away win 59%
- Stenhousemuir 1–0 Partickour call did not landwe called the away win 39%
- Falkirk 2–1 Heart Of Midlothianour call did not landwe called the away win 45%
- Motherwell 0–4 Aberdeenour call did not landwe called the home win 62%
- Hibernian 0–1 Kilmarnockour call did not landwe called the home win 61%
- Middlesbrough 2–2 Millwallour call did not landwe called the home win 50%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.