Who will win Norwich vs Bolton?

Our model makes Norwich the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.

How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Bolton?

Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.

Will both teams score in Norwich vs Bolton?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Norwich vs Bolton?

Norwich's reported absences and doubts include J. Makama, P. Maghoma, M. Topic, L. Mahovo and 3 others. Bolton's include L. Stephenson, C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt, J. Sheehan and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Norwich vs Bolton?

Norwich line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bolton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Championship · Regular Season - 8

NorwichvBolton

Sun 20 Sep · 12:30 UTC

3 – 4 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.8–1.2 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Norwich and Bolton finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Norwich goals down the side, Bolton across
Nor / Bol	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	4	2	0.5	0.1
1	8	11	7	3	0.9	0.2
2	8	10	6	2	0.8	0.2
3	5	6	4	1	0.5	0.1
4	2	2	2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Norwich down the side and Bolton across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 44%.

What we think

Norwich49% · Match result
Over 2.558% · Goals
Yes58% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5

We make this 65% against a market price of 56% — 9 points of difference.
Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
13 players reported unavailable — 7 for Norwich, 6 for Bolton.

Our forecast makes Norwich the most likely of the three results, at 49% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 49% this result does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 58%, against the market’s 66% — a 8 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Norwich a 68% chance. Our model makes it 49%.

NorwichModel 49% [38%–61%]Market 68%

2Market

Open: 67% home · 19% draw · 14% away

Now: 68% home · 18% draw · 13% away

Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Norwich

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home49%vs68%−19pp

Draw24%vs18%+6pp

Away27%vs13%+14pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.558%vs66%−8pp

Under 2.542%vs34%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs86%−6pp

Under 1.520%vs14%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.535%vs44%−9pp

Under 3.565%vs56%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes58%vs58%0pp

No42%vs42%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Norwich

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

J. Makama — out (Foot Injury)
P. Maghoma — out (Calf Injury)
M. Topic — out (Knee Injury)
L. Mahovo — out (Ankle Injury)
A. Crnac — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
A. Ahmed — out (Knee Injury)
L. Gibbs — out (Muscle Injury)

Bolton

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

L. Stephenson — out (Injury)
C. Forino-Joseph — out (Groin Injury)
L. Brunt — out (Injury)
J. Sheehan — out (Red Card)
X. Simons — out (Red Card)
R. Rodrigues — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

NorwichLWWLW

Sat 12 Sep · A v Middlesbrough 3–4
Wed 9 Sep · H v Birmingham 2–1
Sat 5 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 3–1
Tue 1 Sep · A v Stoke City 0–1
Sat 29 Aug · H v Burnley 4–1(xG 1.9–0.9)

BoltonWLLLL

Sat 12 Sep · H v Cardiff 1–0
Tue 8 Sep · H v West Ham 2–3
Sat 5 Sep · A v Millwall 0–4
Tue 1 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 2–3
Sat 29 Aug · H v Lincoln 0–1(xG 1.5–1.1)

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Norwich

Norwich have won 3 of their last 5.
Norwich have scored in 4 of their last 5.
4 of Norwich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 4 of Norwich's last 5.
Norwich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

Bolton

Bolton have won 1 of their last 5.
Bolton have scored in 3 of their last 5.
3 of Bolton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Bolton's last 5.
Bolton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Norwich

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Bolton

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk · Referee: Tom Nield, England

8Red flags

Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Norwich vs Bolton?: Our model makes Norwich the most likely result at 49%. Most likely is not likely — at 49% it does not happen 51% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
How many goals are expected in Norwich vs Bolton?: Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 58%, and under 2.5 at 42%.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Bolton?: Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Norwich vs Bolton?: Norwich's reported absences and doubts include J. Makama, P. Maghoma, M. Topic, L. Mahovo and 3 others. Bolton's include L. Stephenson, C. Forino-Joseph, L. Brunt, J. Sheehan and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Norwich vs Bolton?: Norwich line up in a 4-2-3-1, Bolton in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Nor / Bol	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	4	2	0.5	0.1
1	8	11	7	3	0.9	0.2
2	8	10	6	2	0.8	0.2
3	5	6	4	1	0.5	0.1
4	2	2	2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Nor / Bol	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	4	2	0.5	0.1
1	8	11	7	3	0.9	0.2
2	8	10	6	2	0.8	0.2
3	5	6	4	1	0.5	0.1
4	2	2	2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

Nor / Bol	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	4	2	0.5	0.1
1	8	11	7	3	0.9	0.2
2	8	10	6	2	0.8	0.2
3	5	6	4	1	0.5	0.1
4	2	2	2	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0