La Liga · Regular Season - 7
VillarrealvLevante
Villarreal
Levante·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.3–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%). Villarreal and Levante finish on some other score 72% of the time.
| Vil / Lev | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Villarreal down the side and Levante across. These 97.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 3.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 39% against 44%.
What we think
- Villarreal64% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Villarreal the most likely of the three results, at 64% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 72%). Most likely is not likely: at 64% this result does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, against the market’s 67% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Villarreal a 64% chance. Our model makes it 64%.
2Market
Open: 64% home · 20% draw · 16% away
Now: 64% home · 20% draw · 16% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Villarreal
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- S. Comesana — out (Injury)
- J. Foyth — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- W. Kambwala — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Diatta — out (Red Card)
Levante
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- H. Sotelo — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Etta Eyong — out (Injury)
- R. Brugue — out (Red Card)
- A. Primo — out (Shoulder Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VillarrealWLLLD
- Thu 17 Sep · A v Malaga 3–1
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Real Betis 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Deportivo La Coruna 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Alaves 0–1(xG 1.3–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Atletico Madrid 2–2(xG 3.6–0.8)
LevanteLDWDL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Barcelona 2–4
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Malaga 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Real Betis 5–2(xG 3.0–2.0)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Espanyol 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Villarreal have won 1 of their last 5.
- Villarreal have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Villarreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Villarreal's last 5.
- Villarreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Levante have won 1 of their last 5.
- Levante have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Levante's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Levante's last 5.
- Levante kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Villarreal have won 3, Levante 1, with 0 drawn.
- Villarreal W–D–L
- 3–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 4
- Both scored
- 1 of 4
- Villarreal 5–1 Levante
- Levante 0–1 Villarreal
- Levante 2–0 Villarreal
- Villarreal 5–0 Levante
7Context
Villarreal
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Levante
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal · Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Villarreal vs Levante?
- Our model makes Villarreal the most likely result at 64%. Most likely is not likely — at 64% it does not happen 36% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- How many goals are expected in Villarreal vs Levante?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Levante?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Villarreal vs Levante?
- Villarreal's reported absences and doubts include S. Comesana, J. Foyth, W. Kambwala, A. Diatta. Levante's include H. Sotelo, K. Etta Eyong, R. Brugue, A. Primo. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Villarreal vs Levante?
- Villarreal line up in a 4-4-2, Levante in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Levante?
- In their last 4 meetings, Villarreal have won 3, Levante 1, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.