La Liga · Regular Season - 7
GetafevMalaga
Getafe
Malaga·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–0.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (17%), then 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%). Getafe and Malaga finish on some other score 55% of the time.
| Get / Mal | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 17 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Getafe down the side and Malaga across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 41% against 36%.
What we think
- Getafe46% · Match result
- Under 2.559% · Goals
- No54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Getafe the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 41%, against the market’s 36% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Getafe a 48% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 48% home · 30% draw · 22% away
Now: 48% home · 30% draw · 22% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Getafe
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- M. Martin — out (Thigh Injury)
- Kiko Femenia — out (Red Card)
- R. Terrats — out (Inactive)
- B. Mayoral — out (Injury)
- A. Garcia — out (Injury)
- A. Abqar — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Satriano — doubtful (Injury)
- Z. Romero — out (Red Card)
- Francho — out (Injury)
- C. Uche — out (Knee Injury)
- Juanmi — out (Injury)
Malaga
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- A. Ochoa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Cajuste — out (Injury)
- H. Abaida — out (Inactive)
- A. Aznou — out (Muscle Injury)
- F. Calero — out (Ribs Injury)
- A. Pastor — out (Illness)
- C. Dotor — out (Illness)
- A. Nino — out (Injury)
- J. Lobete — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Murillo — out (Injury)
- Juanpe — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Diarra — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
GetafeLDDLW
- Thu 17 Sep · A v Real Betis 0–1
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1
- Mon 7 Sep · H v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Osasuna 0–1(xG 0.7–1.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Racing Santander 1–0(xG 1.2–1.3)
MalagaLDDLD
- Thu 17 Sep · H v Villarreal 1–3
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Celta Vigo 1–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Levante 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Real Madrid 0–4(xG 0.7–2.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Deportivo La Coruna 1–1(xG 1.9–1.1)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5.
- Getafe have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 0 of Getafe's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Getafe's last 5.
- Getafe kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Malaga have won 0 of their last 5.
- Malaga have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Malaga's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Malaga's last 5.
- Malaga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Getafe
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Malaga
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio Coliseum, Getafe · Referee: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Getafe vs Malaga?
- Our model makes Getafe the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Getafe vs Malaga?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 41%, and under 2.5 at 59%.
- Will both teams score in Getafe vs Malaga?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 46% chance, against 54% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Getafe vs Malaga?
- Getafe's reported absences and doubts include M. Martin, Kiko Femenia, R. Terrats, B. Mayoral and 7 others. Malaga's include A. Ochoa, J. Cajuste, H. Abaida, A. Aznou and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Getafe vs Malaga?
- Getafe line up in a 4-4-2, Malaga in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.