La Liga · Regular Season - 7
Deportivo La CorunavReal Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Real Betis·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Deportivo La Coruna and Real Betis finish on some other score 69% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Dep / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Deportivo La Coruna down the side and Real Betis across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 56%.
What we think
- Real Betis42% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Betis the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 34% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 48%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, which is what the market has it at too (56%).
For comparison, the market gives Real Betis a 48% chance. Our model makes it 42%.
2Market
Open: 26% home · 25% draw · 48% away
Now: 26% home · 25% draw · 48% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Carrillo — out (Injury)
- Angelino — out (Red Card)
- B. Nsongo — doubtful (Injury)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Altimira — out (Red Card)
- A. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Hernandez — out (Groin Injury)
Real Betis
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Morante — out (Injury)
- A. Ezzalzouli — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Losada — out (Inactive)
- D. Llorente — out (Broken nose)
- D. Ceballos — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- A. Ruibal — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Petit — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lo Celso — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Conde — out (Shoulder Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Deportivo La CorunaLDWWD
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Sevilla 0–1
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Getafe 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Villarreal 3–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Valencia 3–1(xG 1.4–1.3)
- Mon 24 Aug · A v Malaga 1–1(xG 1.1–1.9)
Real BetisWWWLW
- Thu 17 Sep · H v Getafe 1–0
- Mon 14 Sep · A v Villarreal 2–1
- Fri 4 Sep · H v Real Madrid 1–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Levante 2–5(xG 2.0–3.0)
- Tue 25 Aug · A v Valencia 1–0(xG 0.7–1.1)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Deportivo La Coruna's last 5.
- Deportivo La Coruna kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Real Betis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Real Betis's last 5.
- Real Betis kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Deportivo La Coruna
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Real Betis
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio de Riazor, La Coruna · Referee: César Soto Grado, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
- Our model makes Real Betis the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 48%.
- How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
- Deportivo La Coruna's reported absences and doubts include N. Carrillo, Angelino, B. Nsongo, M. Casado and 3 others. Real Betis's include J. Morante, A. Ezzalzouli, I. Losada, D. Llorente and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Deportivo La Coruna vs Real Betis?
- Deportivo La Coruna line up in a 4-4-2, Real Betis in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.