La Liga · Regular Season - 7
Atletico MadridvReal Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Atl / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atletico Madrid down the side and Real Madrid across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 41%.
What we think
- Real Madrid38% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 63% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Real Madrid a 47% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 28% home · 25% draw · 47% away
Now: 28% home · 25% draw · 47% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- C. Romero — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Lemar — out (Coach's decision)
- J. Alvarez — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Sorloth — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Esteban — doubtful (Injury)
- P. Barrios — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Le Normand — out (Red Card)
- O. Vargas — out (Coach's decision)
Real Madrid
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Asencio — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tchouameni — out (Muscle Injury)
- Endrick — out (Muscle Injury)
- Rodrygo — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Pitarch — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mendy — out (Hip Injury)
- Eder Militao — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atletico MadridWWLWD
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Osasuna 4–0
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Real Sociedad 3–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Athletic Club 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sevilla 3–1(xG 0.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2(xG 0.8–3.6)
Real MadridWWLWW
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Elche 3–2
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Rayo Vallecano 4–1
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Real Betis 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Malaga 4–0(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Wed 26 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 4–1(xG 3.1–0.6)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atletico Madrid have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 5 of Atletico Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atletico Madrid's last 5.
- Atletico Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Madrid's last 5.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 3, Real Madrid 3, with 4 drawn.
- Atletico Madrid W–D–L
- 3–4–3
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 8 of 10
- Real Madrid 3–2 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 5–2 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–1 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 3–1 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 1–1 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–2 Real Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–0 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–0 Atletico Madrid
7Context
Atletico Madrid
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Real Madrid
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid · Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
- Our model makes Real Madrid the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
- How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
- Atletico Madrid's reported absences and doubts include C. Romero, T. Lemar, J. Alvarez, A. Sorloth and 4 others. Real Madrid's include R. Asencio, A. Tchouameni, Endrick, Rodrygo and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
- Atletico Madrid line up in a 4-4-2, Real Madrid in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid?
- In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 3, Real Madrid 3, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 8.