La Liga · Regular Season - 7
ValenciavReal Sociedad
Valencia
Real Sociedad·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.5–1.2 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Valencia and Real Sociedad finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Val / Rea | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Valencia down the side and Real Sociedad across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 49%.
What we think
- Valencia45% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Valencia the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 37% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Real Sociedad the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 34%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 49% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Real Sociedad a 37% chance. Our model makes it 29%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 28% draw · 37% away
Now: 34% home · 28% draw · 37% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Valencia
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- L. Rioja — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Foulquier — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Tarrega — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Diakhaby — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vazquez — doubtful (Ankle Injury)
- U. Sadiq — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Almeida — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Rodriguez — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Maffeo — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Mari — out (Leg Injury)
- D. Lopez — out (Knee Injury)
- J. De Haas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Copete — out (Ankle Injury)
- S. Canos — out (Knee Injury)
Real Sociedad
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- I. Zubeldia — out (Injury)
- J. Martin — out (Red Card)
- P. Marin — out (Injury)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- G. Guedes — out (Injury)
- J. Pacheco — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Odriozola — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Gorrotxategi — out (Groin Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ValenciaWLLLL
- Tue 15 Sep · A v Alaves 1–0
- Fri 11 Sep · A v Sevilla 0–1
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Barcelona 0–5
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–3(xG 1.3–1.4)
- Tue 25 Aug · H v Real Betis 0–1(xG 1.1–0.7)
Real SociedadLWDWL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Atletico Madrid 0–3
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Elche 3–2
- Thu 3 Sep · H v Celta Vigo 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Espanyol 2–1(xG 1.7–0.8)
- Wed 26 Aug · A v Real Madrid 1–4(xG 0.6–3.1)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Valencia have won 1 of their last 5.
- Valencia have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of Valencia's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Valencia's last 5.
- Valencia kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad have won 2 of their last 5.
- Real Sociedad have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Sociedad's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Sociedad's last 5.
- Real Sociedad kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Valencia have won 3, Real Sociedad 3, with 4 drawn.
- Valencia W–D–L
- 3–4–3
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 10
- Both scored
- 3 of 10
- Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia
- Valencia 1–1 Real Sociedad
- Valencia 1–0 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Valencia
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Valencia
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad
- Valencia 1–0 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Valencia
- Valencia 0–0 Real Sociedad
- Real Sociedad 0–0 Valencia
7Context
Valencia
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Real Sociedad
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia · Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Our model makes Valencia the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market instead favours Real Sociedad at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Valencia's reported absences and doubts include L. Rioja, D. Foulquier, C. Tarrega, M. Diakhaby and 10 others. Real Sociedad's include I. Zubeldia, J. Martin, P. Marin, H. Fort and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
- Valencia line up in a 4-4-2, Real Sociedad in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Sociedad?
- In their last 10 meetings, Valencia have won 3, Real Sociedad 3, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.