Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
DC UnitedvCharlotte
DC United
Charlotte·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.4 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-2 (8%), 0-1 (8%). DC United and Charlotte finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| DC / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, DC United down the side and Charlotte across. These 99.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Charlotte38% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Charlotte the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
DC United
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- L. Munteanu — out (International duty)
- T. Baribo — out (International duty)
- Peglow — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Rowles — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Hefti — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Nealis — out (Broken collarbone)
- M. Peltola — out (International duty)
- N. Ordaz — out (International duty)
Charlotte
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Johnson — out (International duty)
- D. Schnegg — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Westwood — out (Red Card)
- N. Berchimas — out (Foot Injury)
- H. Kessler — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- I. Toklomati — out (International duty)
- R. Aloko — out (International duty)
- L. Abada — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DC UnitedDWDLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Atlanta United FC 0–0
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Columbus Crew 2–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 0–0(xG 1.2–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Charlotte 1–3
- Wed 19 Aug · H v New England Revolution 0–3
CharlotteDWDWW
- Sat 12 Sep · A v FC Cincinnati 3–3
- Wed 9 Sep · A v CF Montreal 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Houston Dynamo 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 2–0(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v DC United 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- DC United have won 1 of their last 5.
- DC United have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of DC United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of DC United's last 5.
- DC United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5.
- Charlotte have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Charlotte's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Charlotte's last 5.
- Charlotte kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- DC United W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Charlotte 3–1 DC United
7Context
DC United
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Charlotte
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Audi Field, Washington · Referee: A. Villarreal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win DC United vs Charlotte?
- Our model makes Charlotte the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in DC United vs Charlotte?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in DC United vs Charlotte?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for DC United vs Charlotte?
- DC United's reported absences and doubts include L. Munteanu, T. Baribo, Peglow, K. Rowles and 4 others. Charlotte's include A. Johnson, D. Schnegg, A. Westwood, N. Berchimas and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for DC United vs Charlotte?
- DC United line up in a 4-3-3, Charlotte in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.