Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
San Jose EarthquakesvLos Angeles FC
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles FC finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| San / Los | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, San Jose Earthquakes down the side and Los Angeles FC across. These 98.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 43%.
What we think
- Los Angeles FC43% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Los Angeles FC the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 65% — a 5 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Los Angeles FC a 46% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 24% draw · 46% away
Now: 30% home · 24% draw · 46% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
San Jose Earthquakes
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- R. Vieira — out (International duty)
- P. Judd — out (Injury)
- T. Werner — out (Injury)
- D. Johnson — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Edwards — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Tsakiris — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Gunn — out (International duty)
- O. Bouda — out (International duty)
Los Angeles FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Shaffelburg — out (International duty)
- A. Long — out (Red Card)
- D. Bouanga — out (International duty)
- T. Tillman — out (Injury)
- S. Palencia — out (Groin Injury)
- L. Walta — out (International duty)
- J. Terry — out (International duty)
- M. Choiniere — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
San Jose EarthquakesWWDDL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Houston Dynamo 1–0
- Thu 10 Sep · A v San Diego 3–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Austin 1–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Houston Dynamo 0–0(xG 1.3–0.7)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Minnesota United FC 1–5
Los Angeles FCLWDDD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Sporting Kansas City 1–3
- Thu 10 Sep · H v New York Red Bulls 2–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Real Salt Lake 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v DC United 0–0(xG 1.8–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Portland Timbers 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- San Jose Earthquakes have won 2 of their last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of San Jose Earthquakes's last 5.
- San Jose Earthquakes kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Los Angeles FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Los Angeles FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Los Angeles FC's last 5.
- Los Angeles FC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- San Jose Earthquakes W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Los Angeles FC 1–4 San Jose Earthquakes
7Context
San Jose Earthquakes
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Los Angeles FC
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
PayPal Park · Referee: D. Fischer
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model makes Los Angeles FC the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
- San Jose Earthquakes's reported absences and doubts include R. Vieira, P. Judd, T. Werner, D. Johnson and 4 others. Los Angeles FC's include J. Shaffelburg, A. Long, D. Bouanga, T. Tillman and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles FC?
- San Jose Earthquakes line up in a 3-4-2-1, Los Angeles FC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.