Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
New England RevolutionvOrlando City SC
New England Revolution
Orlando City SC·
4 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.9–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). New England Revolution and Orlando City SC finish on some other score 74% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| New / Orl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, New England Revolution down the side and Orlando City SC across. These 98.3% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.7% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- New England Revolution48% · Match result
- Over 2.562% · Goals
- Yes61% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes New England Revolution the most likely of the three results, at 48% (we would not be surprised by anything from 36% to 59%). Most likely is not likely: at 48% this result does not happen 52% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 62%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
New England Revolution
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- B. Raines — out (International duty)
- P. Miller — out (International duty)
- I. Feingold — out (International duty)
- L. Langoni — out (Thigh Injury)
- J. Harrison — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Farrell — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- M. Polster — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Campana — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Turgeman — out (International duty)
Orlando City SC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- T. Spicer — out (International duty)
- M. Pasalic — out (International duty)
- W. Cartagena — out (International duty)
- D. Brekalo — out (International duty)
- A. Griezmann — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Dorsey — out (Back Injury)
- E. Atuesta — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Marin — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Guske — out (International duty)
- D. McGuire — out (Leg Injury)
- J. Gerbet — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Ellis — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
New England RevolutionWWLWD
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Chicago Fire 2–1
- Thu 10 Sep · A v New York City FC 2–1
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 3–1(xG 1.4–0.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1
Orlando City SCWWWDW
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Toronto FC 3–0
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Atlanta United FC 3–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v San Diego 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 3–3(xG 1.3–3.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- New England Revolution have won 3 of their last 5.
- New England Revolution have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of New England Revolution's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of New England Revolution's last 5.
- New England Revolution kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Orlando City SC have won 4 of their last 5.
- Orlando City SC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Orlando City SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Orlando City SC's last 5.
- Orlando City SC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
New England Revolution
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Orlando City SC
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Gillette Stadium, Boston · Referee: S. Boiko
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
- Our model makes New England Revolution the most likely result at 48%. Most likely is not likely — at 48% it does not happen 52% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 62%, and under 2.5 at 38%.
- Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance, against 39% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
- New England Revolution's reported absences and doubts include B. Raines, P. Miller, I. Feingold, L. Langoni and 6 others. Orlando City SC's include T. Spicer, M. Pasalic, W. Cartagena, D. Brekalo and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC?
- New England Revolution line up in a 4-3-3, Orlando City SC in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.