Who will win CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?

Our model makes Columbus Crew the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time.

How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?

Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.

Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?

Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?

CF Montreal's reported absences and doubts include G. Synchuk, N. Streit, V. Radojevic, E. Morales and 12 others. Columbus Crew's include R. Camacho, J. Thiare, A. Gomes, D. Chambost and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?

CF Montreal line up in a 4-2-3-1, Columbus Crew in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26

CF MontrealvColumbus Crew

Sat 19 Sep · 23:30 UTC

0 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.4–1.6 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). CF Montreal and Columbus Crew finish on some other score 72% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, CF Montreal goals down the side, Columbus Crew across
CF / Col	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	7	6	3	1	0.5
1	6	11	9	5	2	0.6
2	5	8	6	3	1	0.5
3	2	4	3	2	0.7	0.2
4	0.8	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, CF Montreal down the side and Columbus Crew across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

What we think

Columbus Crew42% · Match result
Over 2.559% · Goals
Yes60% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.

Our forecast makes Columbus Crew the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 31% to 54%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time.

Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, with no price captured for it yet.

No market data captured yet for this fixture.

2Market

No odds captured yet.

Match result

Home33%vs—

Draw25%vs—

Away42%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.559%vs—

Under 2.541%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs—

Under 1.520%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.535%vs—

Under 3.565%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes60%vs—

No40%vs—

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

CF Montreal

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

G. Synchuk — out (International duty)
N. Streit — out (International duty)
V. Radojevic — out (International duty)
E. Morales — out (International duty)
W. Carmona — out (International duty)
T. Gillier — out (Upper-Body Injury)
B. Vera — out (Lower-Body Injury)
B. Ceballos — out (Yellow Cards)
F. Herbers — out (Leg Injury)
B. Hidalgo — out (Groin Injury)
T. Aviles — out (Hamstring Injury)
S. Ibrahim — out (Back Injury)
F. Amaya — out (Lower-Body Injury)
D. Sealy — out (International duty)
S. Piette — out (Yellow Cards)
O. Escobar — out (International duty)

Columbus Crew

Confirmed · 4-4-2

R. Camacho — out (Foot Injury)
J. Thiare — out (Leg Injury)
A. Gomes — out (Thigh Injury)
D. Chambost — out (Ankle Injury)
W. Abou Ali — out (Knee Injury)
M. Farsi — out (Hernia)
S. Bangoura — out (Ankle Injury)
L. Giaccone — doubtful (Injury)
G. Tapia — out (International duty)
S. Moreira — out (International duty)
N. Hagen — out (International duty)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

CF MontrealLLLLD

Sun 13 Sep · A v Colorado Rapids 0–1
Wed 9 Sep · H v Charlotte 1–2
Sat 5 Sep · A v Philadelphia Union 0–2
Sat 29 Aug · A v Inter Miami 1–7(xG 0.9–3.0)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2

Columbus CrewLLWLL

Sat 12 Sep · H v New York Red Bulls 0–1
Wed 9 Sep · A v DC United 1–2
Sat 5 Sep · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
Sun 30 Aug · H v New England Revolution 1–3(xG 0.4–1.4)
Sun 23 Aug · A v Nashville SC 2–3

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

CF Montreal

CF Montreal have won 0 of their last 5.
CF Montreal have scored in 3 of their last 5.
3 of CF Montreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of CF Montreal's last 5.
CF Montreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.

Columbus Crew

Columbus Crew have won 1 of their last 5.
Columbus Crew have scored in 4 of their last 5.
4 of Columbus Crew's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Columbus Crew's last 5.
Columbus Crew kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.

CF Montreal W–D–L: 1–0–0
Over 2.5: 1 of 1
Both scored: 1 of 1

2026Columbus Crew 1–2 CF Montreal

7Context

CF Montreal

Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d

Columbus Crew

Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d

Saputo Stadium, Montreal · Referee: F. Bazakos

8Red flags

Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.

Common questions

Who will win CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?: Our model makes Columbus Crew the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time.
How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?: Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?: Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?: CF Montreal's reported absences and doubts include G. Synchuk, N. Streit, V. Radojevic, E. Morales and 12 others. Columbus Crew's include R. Camacho, J. Thiare, A. Gomes, D. Chambost and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for CF Montreal vs Columbus Crew?: CF Montreal line up in a 4-2-3-1, Columbus Crew in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

CF / Col	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	7	6	3	1	0.5
1	6	11	9	5	2	0.6
2	5	8	6	3	1	0.5
3	2	4	3	2	0.7	0.2
4	0.8	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

CF / Col	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	7	6	3	1	0.5
1	6	11	9	5	2	0.6
2	5	8	6	3	1	0.5
3	2	4	3	2	0.7	0.2
4	0.8	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0

CF / Col	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	7	6	3	1	0.5
1	6	11	9	5	2	0.6
2	5	8	6	3	1	0.5
3	2	4	3	2	0.7	0.2
4	0.8	1	1	0.6	0.2	0.1
5	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0