La Liga · Regular Season - 7
Athletic ClubvAlaves
Athletic Club
Alaves·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.5–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Athletic Club and Alaves finish on some other score 63% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Ath / Ala | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Athletic Club down the side and Alaves across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 29%.
What we think
- Athletic Club53% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Athletic Club the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 59%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Athletic Club a 59% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 24% draw · 17% away
Now: 59% home · 24% draw · 17% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Athletic Club
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Gorosabel — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Guruzeta — out (Muscle Injury)
- P. Canales — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Djalo — out (Coach's decision)
- B. Prados Diaz — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Vivian — out (Hamstring Injury)
- N. Serrano — out (Coach's decision)
- U. Vencedor — out (Inactive)
- U. Egiluz — out (Knee Injury)
Alaves
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- T. Martinez — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Manas — out (Injury)
- M. Rodriguez — out (Ankle Injury)
- N. Valentini — out (Red Card)
- T. Mendes — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Garces — out (Suspended)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Athletic ClubDWWLL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Elche 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atletico Madrid 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–0(xG 2.6–0.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · A v Barcelona 0–2(xG 0.2–3.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sevilla 1–3
AlavesLLWWD
- Tue 15 Sep · H v Valencia 0–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Racing Santander 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Osasuna 5–2
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Villarreal 1–0(xG 0.8–1.3)
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Rayo Vallecano 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Athletic Club have won 2 of their last 5.
- Athletic Club have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Athletic Club's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Athletic Club's last 5.
- Athletic Club kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Alaves have won 2 of their last 5.
- Alaves have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Alaves's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Alaves's last 5.
- Alaves kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Athletic Club have won 5, Alaves 1, with 2 drawn.
- Athletic Club W–D–L
- 5–2–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 8
- Both scored
- 2 of 8
- Alaves 2–4 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 0–1 Alaves
- Athletic Club 1–0 Alaves
- Alaves 1–1 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 2–0 Alaves
- Alaves 0–2 Athletic Club
- Alaves 0–0 Athletic Club
- Athletic Club 1–0 Alaves
7Context
Athletic Club
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Alaves
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
San Mamés Barria, Bilbao · Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Our model makes Athletic Club the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 59%.
- How many goals are expected in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Athletic Club's reported absences and doubts include A. Gorosabel, G. Guruzeta, P. Canales, A. Djalo and 5 others. Alaves's include T. Martinez, A. Manas, M. Rodriguez, N. Valentini and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Athletic Club vs Alaves?
- Athletic Club line up in a 4-2-3-1, Alaves in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Alaves?
- In their last 8 meetings, Athletic Club have won 5, Alaves 1, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.