La Liga · Regular Season - 7
Celta VigovRacing Santander
Celta Vigo
Racing Santander·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (8%). Celta Vigo and Racing Santander finish on some other score 74% of the time.
| Cel / Rac | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Celta Vigo down the side and Racing Santander across. These 97.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Celta Vigo59% · Match result
- Over 2.564% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Celta Vigo the most likely of the three results, at 59% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 59% this result does not happen 41% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 64%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Celta Vigo
Confirmed · 3-4-3
- B. Iglesias — out (Injury)
- I. Aspas — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. El Abdellaoui — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Antanon — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Febas — out (Ribs Injury)
- M. Vecino — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Perez — out (Inactive)
- M. Alonso — out (Red Card)
Racing Santander
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Almeida — out (Red Card)
- S. Eriksson — out (Shoulder Injury)
- I. Luque — out (Inactive)
- Pedro Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Martin — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Guliashvili — out (Leg Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Celta VigoDDDLL
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Malaga 1–1
- Mon 7 Sep · A v Getafe 1–1
- Thu 3 Sep · A v Real Sociedad 0–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Athletic Club 0–2(xG 0.6–2.6)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Osasuna 1–2(xG 0.1–2.7)
Racing SantanderLWLWL
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Barcelona 2–7
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Alaves 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Rayo Vallecano 2–3
- Fri 28 Aug · H v Elche 3–2(xG 1.5–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Getafe 0–1(xG 1.3–1.2)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Celta Vigo have won 0 of their last 5.
- Celta Vigo have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 1 of Celta Vigo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Celta Vigo's last 5.
- Celta Vigo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Racing Santander have won 2 of their last 5.
- Racing Santander have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Racing Santander's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Racing Santander's last 5.
- Racing Santander kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Celta Vigo
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Racing Santander
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Vigo · Referee: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
- Our model makes Celta Vigo the most likely result at 59%. Most likely is not likely — at 59% it does not happen 41% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 64%, and under 2.5 at 36%.
- Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
- Celta Vigo's reported absences and doubts include B. Iglesias, I. Aspas, J. El Abdellaoui, A. Antanon and 4 others. Racing Santander's include A. Almeida, S. Eriksson, I. Luque, Pedro Felipe and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Celta Vigo vs Racing Santander?
- Celta Vigo line up in a 3-4-3, Racing Santander in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.