La Liga · Regular Season - 7
OsasunavRayo Vallecano
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Osa / Ray | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Osasuna down the side and Rayo Vallecano across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 47% against 47%.
What we think
- Osasuna41% · Match result
- Under 2.553% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Osasuna the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 37%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 47%, which is what the market has it at too (47%).
For comparison, the market gives Osasuna a 37% chance. Our model makes it 41%.
2Market
Open: 37% home · 29% draw · 34% away
Now: 37% home · 29% draw · 34% away
Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Osasuna
Confirmed · 4-5-1
- J. Herrando — out (Muscle Injury)
- V. Rosier — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Gomez — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Oroz — out (Muscle Injury)
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. de Frutos — out (Red Card)
- F. Perez — out (Red Card)
- R. Nteka — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Balliu — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kumbulla — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vertrouwd — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Palazon — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Batalla — out (Broken calfbone)
- D. Mendez — out (Knee Injury)
- Luiz Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
OsasunaLLLWW
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Atletico Madrid 0–4
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Espanyol 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Alaves 2–5
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Getafe 1–0(xG 1.7–0.7)
- Thu 27 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–1(xG 2.7–0.1)
Rayo VallecanoWLWLD
- Tue 15 Sep · H v Espanyol 2–1
- Sat 12 Sep · A v Real Madrid 1–4
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Racing Santander 3–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Barcelona 2–5(xG 1.1–2.8)
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Alaves 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Osasuna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Osasuna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Osasuna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Osasuna's last 5.
- Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Osasuna have won 6, Rayo Vallecano 3, with 1 drawn.
- Osasuna W–D–L
- 6–1–3
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Rayo Vallecano 1–3 Osasuna
- Osasuna 2–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Osasuna 1–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 3–1 Osasuna
- Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Osasuna
- Osasuna 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 0–3 Osasuna
- Osasuna 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
7Context
Osasuna
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Rayo Vallecano
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea · Referee: Manuel Jesus Orellana Cid, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model makes Osasuna the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 37%.
- How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 47%, and under 2.5 at 53%.
- Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Osasuna's reported absences and doubts include J. Herrando, V. Rosier, M. Gomez, A. Oroz. Rayo Vallecano's include J. de Frutos, F. Perez, R. Nteka, I. Balliu and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Osasuna line up in a 4-5-1, Rayo Vallecano in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
- In their last 10 meetings, Osasuna have won 6, Rayo Vallecano 3, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.