La Liga · Regular Season - 7
SevillavBarcelona
Sevilla
Barcelona·
1 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.1–2.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–2 (10%), then 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Sevilla and Barcelona finish on some other score 72% of the time.
| Sev / Bar | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Sevilla down the side and Barcelona across. These 97.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
What we think
- Barcelona60% · Match result
- Over 2.561% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We hold no prices for this match yet, so there has been nothing to weigh. The research below stands on its own.
Our forecast makes Barcelona the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 61%, with no price captured for it yet.
No market data captured yet for this fixture.
2Market
No odds captured yet.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Sevilla
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Vargas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Sangante — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Stassin — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Salas — out (Red Card)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- Marcao — out (Foot Injury)
- A. Gonzalez — out (Muscle Injury)
Barcelona
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- J. Bisiwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Garcia — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Livakovic — out (Inactive)
- M. Casado — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Fort — out (Coach's decision)
- Rodri — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Balde — out (Coach's decision)
- F. de Jong — out (Knee Injury)
- Gavi — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Bardghji — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SevillaWWDLW
- Wed 16 Sep · A v Deportivo La Coruna 1–0
- Fri 11 Sep · H v Valencia 1–0
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Espanyol 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Atletico Madrid 1–3(xG 1.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Athletic Club 3–1
BarcelonaWWWWW
- Wed 16 Sep · H v Racing Santander 7–2
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Levante 4–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Valencia 5–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Rayo Vallecano 5–2(xG 2.8–1.1)
- Thu 27 Aug · H v Athletic Club 2–0(xG 3.9–0.2)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Sevilla have won 3 of their last 5.
- Sevilla have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Sevilla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sevilla's last 5.
- Sevilla kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have won 5 of their last 5.
- Barcelona have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Barcelona's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Barcelona's last 5.
- Barcelona kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Sevilla have won 1, Barcelona 8, with 1 drawn.
- Sevilla W–D–L
- 1–1–8
- Over 2.5
- 7 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Barcelona 5–2 Sevilla
- Sevilla 4–1 Barcelona
- Sevilla 1–4 Barcelona
- Barcelona 5–1 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–2 Barcelona
- Barcelona 1–0 Sevilla
- Barcelona 3–0 Sevilla
- Sevilla 0–3 Barcelona
- Barcelona 1–0 Sevilla
- Sevilla 1–1 Barcelona
7Context
Sevilla
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Barcelona
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla · Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Sevilla vs Barcelona?
- Our model makes Barcelona the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time.
- How many goals are expected in Sevilla vs Barcelona?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 61%, and under 2.5 at 39%.
- Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Barcelona?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Sevilla vs Barcelona?
- Sevilla's reported absences and doubts include R. Vargas, A. Sangante, L. Stassin, K. Salas and 3 others. Barcelona's include J. Bisiwu, J. Garcia, D. Livakovic, M. Casado and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Sevilla vs Barcelona?
- Sevilla line up in a 4-2-3-1, Barcelona in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Barcelona?
- In their last 10 meetings, Sevilla have won 1, Barcelona 8, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.