Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 16
Chicago FirevVancouver Whitecaps
Chicago Fire
Vancouver Whitecaps·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.5–1.7 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Chi / Van | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Chicago Fire down the side and Vancouver Whitecaps across. These 98.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 37% against 47%.
What we think
- Vancouver Whitecaps43% · Match result
- Over 2.560% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 63% against a market price of 53% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 68% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 3.2 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 29 players reported unavailable — 14 for Chicago Fire, 15 for Vancouver Whitecaps.
Our forecast makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Tue 29 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 60%, against the market’s 68% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 44% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 24% draw · 43% away
Now: 32% home · 24% draw · 44% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Chicago Fire
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Chicago Fire
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Lod — out (International duty)
- A. Saletros — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Bamba — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- S. Oregel — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- C. Mueller — out (Inactive)
- L. Barroso — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- H. Cuypers — out (Head Injury)
- V. Radojevic — doubtful (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Mekvabishvili — out (International duty)
- R. Lewandowski — out (International duty)
- P. Dithejane — out (International duty)
- C. Brady — out (International duty)
- N. Allen — out (International duty)
Vancouver Whitecaps
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- C. Sabaly — out (Illness)
- R. Priso — out (International duty)
- E. Ocampo — out (International duty)
- M. Gherasimencov — out (International duty)
- A. Cubas — out (Ankle Injury)
- J. Badwal — out (Injury)
- T. Muller — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Berhalter — out (Transfer negotiations)
- R. Veselinovic — out (Knee Injury)
- K. Poku — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. G. Cabrera Nakamura — out (Foot Injury)
- E. Sabbi — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Adekugbe — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Schonlau — out (Hamstring Injury)
- B. Halbouni — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Chicago FireWLLDD
- Sat 26 Sep · A v Charlotte 1–0
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Nashville SC 0–3(xG 1.0–2.1)
- Sun 13 Sep · H v New England Revolution 1–2
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Inter Miami 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Toronto FC 4–4
Vancouver WhitecapsDWLWL
- Sun 27 Sep · H v DC United 3–3
- Sun 20 Sep · A v Real Salt Lake 3–0(xG 2.2–1.2)
- Sun 13 Sep · H v Austin 1–2
- Thu 10 Sep · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–0
- Sun 6 Sep · H v St. Louis City 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Chicago Fire have won 1 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Chicago Fire's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Chicago Fire's last 5.
- Chicago Fire kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 2 of their last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Vancouver Whitecaps's last 5.
- Vancouver Whitecaps kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Chicago Fire
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Vancouver Whitecaps
Rest: 10 days · 1 match in 14d
Soldier Field, Chicago · Referee: Serhiy Boiko
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Our model makes Vancouver Whitecaps the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 60%, and under 2.5 at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Chicago Fire's reported absences and doubts include R. Lod, A. Saletros, J. Bamba, S. Oregel and 10 others. Vancouver Whitecaps's include C. Sabaly, R. Priso, E. Ocampo, M. Gherasimencov and 11 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps?
- Chicago Fire line up in a 4-4-2, Vancouver Whitecaps in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.