Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 26
Inter MiamivSan Diego
Inter Miami
San Diego·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.5–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (8%), then 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Inter Miami and San Diego finish on some other score 77% of the time.
| Int / San | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Inter Miami down the side and San Diego across. These 95.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 4.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 48% against 64%.
What we think
- Inter Miami58% · Match result
- Over 2.572% · Goals
- Yes64% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 52% against a market price of 36% — 16 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.9 goals, and 3.8 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- 28 players reported unavailable — 16 for Inter Miami, 12 for San Diego.
Our forecast makes Inter Miami the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 46% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 72%, against the market’s 80% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Inter Miami a 68% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 68% home · 16% draw · 16% away
Now: 68% home · 16% draw · 16% away
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Inter Miami
Lineup not yet confirmed
- T. Segovia — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Fray — out (Injury)
- G. Berterame — out (International duty)
- M. Silvetti — out (Injury)
- S. Morales — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lujan — out (Leg Injury)
- R. de Paul — out (Rest)
- S. Reguilon — out (Injury)
- M. Falcon — out (Calf Injury)
- D. Ayala — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Allende — out (Knee Injury)
- D. St.Clair — out (International duty)
- D. Pinter — out (International duty)
- M. Galarza — out (International duty)
- L. Delinois — out (International duty)
- F. Caicedo — out (International duty)
San Diego
Lineup not yet confirmed
- dos Santos CJ — out (International duty)
- S. Vines — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Mighten — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Gabriel Pirani — out (Injury)
- J. Tverskov — out (Red Card)
- A. Pellegrino — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Bombino — out (Red Card)
- A. Reyes — out (Leg Injury)
- W. Kumado — out (Leg Injury)
- L. Morgan — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- P. Sisniega — out (Back Injury)
- W. Eisner — out (Lower-Body Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Inter MiamiDDDWL
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Nashville SC 2–2
- Thu 10 Sep · A v Chicago Fire 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Atlanta United FC 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v CF Montreal 7–1(xG 3.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Toronto FC 1–2
San DiegoLLLWW
- Mon 14 Sep · H v Philadelphia Union 0–5
- Thu 10 Sep · H v San Jose Earthquakes 2–3
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Orlando City SC 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–1(xG 2.8–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Inter Miami have won 1 of their last 5.
- Inter Miami have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Inter Miami's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Inter Miami's last 5.
- Inter Miami kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- San Diego have won 2 of their last 5.
- San Diego have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of San Diego's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of San Diego's last 5.
- San Diego kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Inter Miami
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
San Diego
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale · Referee: R. Mendoza
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Inter Miami vs San Diego?
- Our model makes Inter Miami the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- How many goals are expected in Inter Miami vs San Diego?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 72%, and under 2.5 at 28%.
- Will both teams score in Inter Miami vs San Diego?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance, against 36% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Inter Miami vs San Diego?
- Inter Miami's reported absences and doubts include T. Segovia, I. Fray, G. Berterame, M. Silvetti and 12 others. San Diego's include dos Santos CJ, S. Vines, A. Mighten, Gabriel Pirani and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.