Matchday Briefing

What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.

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Today's matches

1 match

2 matches

5 matches

16 matches

4 matches

2 matches

3 matches

1 match

1 match

1 match

2 matches

1 match

Today’s bets

Nothing. Of 50 priced outcomes across today’s matches, none clears the bar we set for putting a recommendation in front of you.

Why that is the usual answer

We only recommend an outcome when our forecast would still beat the price at the unfavourable end of its own range — a probability we are confident about, not merely one that looks generous. Most days the market is priced about right and there is nothing to say.

We recommend; we never guarantee.

What the marks mean, and what the plus does

+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.

How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.

  • model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
  • congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
  • few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
  • wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.

How 's forecasts turned out

3 of 5 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.

What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.