Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Major League Soccer4 matches
- FTMinnesota United FC1–2FC DallasMajor League Soccerv1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)Over 1.578% likely · pays 1.19Last 10 between them averaged 5.4 goals.
- FTAustin1–1Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccerv1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.4 goals)Over 1.579% likely · pays 1.27Last 10 between them averaged 2.3 goals.
- FTHouston Dynamo2–1Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.1 goals)Over 1.577% likely · pays 1.25Last 10 between them averaged 2.2 goals.
- FTChicago Fire1–1Inter MiamiMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 1–3 (2.0–2.1 goals)Over 1.588% likely · pays 1.08Last 10 between them averaged 4.4 goals.
4 matches
- FTLos Angeles FC2–0New York Red BullsMajor League Soccerv1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.3–0.9 goals)Over 1.581% likely · pays 1.12Last 10 between them averaged 1.8 goals.
- FTVancouver Whitecaps3–0Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 3–1 (2.5–1.0 goals)Over 1.584% likely · pays 1.11Last 10 between them averaged 2.8 goals.
- FTPortland Timbers2–2St. Louis CityMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.4 goals)Over 1.581% likely · pays 1.14Last 10 between them averaged 4.0 goals.
- FTSan Diego2–3San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.1–1.3 goals)Over 1.583% likely · pays 1.13Last 10 between them averaged 2.6 goals.
1 match
Super League 11 match
League One1 match
Primeira LigaWhat the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 2 are fewer than the 17.5 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- New York City FC vNew England RevolutionNew York City FCWe make it 55% against a price of 38%. Read the case →
- Estrela vSC BragaYesBoth sides scored in 6 of their last 7.We make it 55% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
2 recommended, from 50 priced outcomes weighed · 17.5 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
7 of 12 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- DC United 2–1 Columbus Crewour call did not landwe called the away win 43%
- CF Montreal 1–2 Charlotteour call landedwe called the away win 37%
- Atlanta United FC 2–3 Orlando City SCour call did not landwe called the home win 43%
- Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SCour call did not landwe called the away win 45%
- Philadelphia Union 5–0 FC Cincinnatiour call landedwe called the home win 56%
- Moreirense 0–4 Benficaour call landedwe called the away win 68%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.