Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Liga MX1 match
Pro League1 match
1 match
Ekstraklasa2 matches
2. Bundesliga
5 matches
- FTBeşiktaş3–0Erzurumspor FKSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTEmpoli0–1ArezzoSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBK Hacken1–1Mjallby AIFAllsvenskanvnot checked for this forecast
- FTSarıyer1–1Bandırmaspor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Copenhagen2–0AC HorsensSuperligavnot checked for this forecast
Süper Lig
Serie B
Allsvenskan
1. Lig
Superliga1 match
Bundesliga17 matches
- FTAZ Alkmaar1–1Willem IIEredivisiev3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.3–0.7 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.91Both sides scored in 6 of the last 9.
- FTAl-Ahli Jeddah3–1Al-HazmPro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTMontpellier1–0PAULigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTDijon3–2LavalLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTClermont Foot0–0BoulogneLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTNancy1–2ReimsLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTRodez0–1GrenobleLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTNAC Breda2–3Jong UtrechtEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTVVV Venlo3–1FC OSSEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTHeracles3–2Jong AZEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTEmmen1–2De GraafschapEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTMVV0–4Almere City FCEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Eindhoven2–1DordrechtEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTHelmond Sport3–1Jong PSV U21Eerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTJong Ajax0–2WaalwijkEerste Divisievnot checked for this forecast
- FTBeerschot VA3–1K. Lierse S.K.Challenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTKAA Gent II0–1DenderChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
Eredivisie
Ligue 2
Eerste Divisie
Challenger Pro League
4 matches
- FTUnion Berlin1–3FC Schalke 04Bundesligav2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–0.9 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.55Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTBurgos3–1AD Ceuta FCSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
- FTWisla Krakow2–0JagielloniaEkstraklasavnot checked for this forecast
- FTMorton1–4LivingstonChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
Bundesliga
Segunda División
Championship3 matches
- FTRennes1–0MarseilleLigue 1vexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.7 goals)Yes62% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTVenezia2–4FiorentinaSerie Av2 notesexpect 1–2 (0.9–1.6 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.62
- FTKV Mechelen0–1AnderlechtJupiler Pro Leaguev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.6 goals)Yes58% likely · pays 1.62
Ligue 1
Serie A
Jupiler Pro League4 matches
- FTSevilla1–0ValenciaLa Ligavexpect 2–1 (1.3–1.1 goals)Yesour bet53% likely · pays 2.00Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTWest Ham6–0WrexhamChampionshipv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.3–0.9 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTBenevento3–1Hellas VeronaSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTPisa1–4Virtus EntellaSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
La Liga
Championship
1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 4 are fewer than the 14.0 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vLeonU.N.A.M. - PumasWe make it 65% against a price of 45%. Read the case →
- Union Berlin vFC Schalke 04Union BerlinWe make it 57% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
- Sevilla vValenciaYesBoth sides scored in 6 of their last 10.We make it 53% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
- Venezia vFiorentinaFiorentinaWe make it 52% against a price of 38%. Read the case →
4 recommended, from 40 priced outcomes weighed · 14.0 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
3 of 10 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Estrela 2–1 SC Bragaour call did not landwe called the away win 58%
- San Diego 2–3 San Jose Earthquakesour call did not landwe called the home win 57%
- Portland Timbers 2–2 St. Louis Cityour call did not landwe called the home win 48%
- Los Angeles FC 2–0 New York Red Bullsour call landedwe called the home win 69%
- Vancouver Whitecaps 3–0 Los Angeles Galaxyour call landedwe called the home win 69%
- Austin 1–1 Colorado Rapidsour call did not landwe called the home win 40%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.