Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
View:
Today's matches
1 match
Serie A1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
Liga MX1 match
1 match
3 matches
2. Bundesliga
7 matches
- FTWest Brom1–1QPRChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)West Brom50% likely · pays 2.21
- FTDerby1–2BirminghamChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Derby44% likely · pays 3.61
- FTBolton1–0CardiffChampionshipv4 notesexpect 1–0 (1.7–0.8 goals)Boltonour bet58% likely · pays 2.62
- FTCrawley Town1–3CheltenhamLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTGrimsby2–0Bristol RoversLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTLeyton Orient2–3WycombeLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTNotts County0–1BradfordLeague Onevno forecast yet
Championship
League Two
League One
4 matches
La Liga
Segunda División
Ligue 2
1 match
Ekstraklasa5 matches
Serie A
Serie B
Allsvenskan5 matches
- FTSC Freiburg5–0Borussia MönchengladbachBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.2 goals)SC Freiburg49% likely · pays 1.74
- FT1899 Hoffenheim2–1VfB StuttgartBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.8 goals)1899 Hoffenheim39% likely · pays 2.38
- FTFC Augsburg2–2Bayer LeverkusenBundesligavexpect 1–2 (1.2–2.0 goals)Bayer Leverkusen55% likely · pays 1.916 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTFSV Mainz 051–3Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.4 goals)FSV Mainz 0543% likely · pays 1.84
- FTBorussia Dortmund3–0SC Paderborn 07Bundesligav3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.7 goals)Borussia Dortmund56% likely · pays 1.326 home wins in the last 10 between them.
Bundesliga
42 matches
- FTBournemouth2–2BrentfordPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.4 goals)Bournemouth46% likely · pays 2.54
- FTLiverpool0–0FulhamPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.1 goals)Liverpool57% likely · pays 1.58
- FTChelsea2–2Hull CityPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.9–0.8 goals)Chelsea80% likely · pays 1.26
- FTCrystal Palace2–3IpswichPremier Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.0 goals)Crystal Palace59% likely · pays 1.93
- FTMiddlesbrough4–3NorwichChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.0 goals)Middlesbrough54% likely · pays 1.87
- FTCharlton0–0PortsmouthChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Charlton38% likely · pays 2.74
- FTSwansea3–1BurnleyChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.3 goals)Burnley40% likely · pays 3.60
- FTSK Beveren2–0St. TruidenJupiler Pro Leaguev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.5 goals)St. Truiden44% likely · pays 2.35
- FTAston Villa1–2Nottingham ForestPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)Aston Villa47% likely · pays 2.34
- FTEyüpspor0–2RizesporSüper Ligv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTSamsunspor1–5Çorum FKSüper Ligv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTWatford1–2Stoke CityChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Watford44% likely · pays 2.40
- FTSouthampton4–1Bristol CityChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.0 goals)Southampton59% likely · pays 1.706 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTBlackburn3–1MillwallChampionshipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Blackburn38% likely · pays 2.70
- FTPreston0–1LincolnChampionshipv4 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.3 goals)Lincoln42% likely · pays 3.05
- FTLillestrom2–0ValerengaEliteserienvno forecast yet
- FTBoluspor1–1Pendikspor1. Ligvno forecast yet
- FTVanspor FK1–1Keçiörengücü1. Ligvno forecast yet
- FTBarnet2–1Accrington STLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTColchester1–1CreweLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTGillingham2–0TranmereLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTNewport County1–1Fleetwood TownLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTOldham1–2ChesterfieldLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTPort Vale1–0Exeter CityLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTRotherham3–3Salford CityLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTShrewsbury2–0NorthamptonLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTWalsall0–0RochdaleLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTYork4–0Swindon TownLeague Twovno forecast yet
- FTAFC Wimbledon1–0DoncasterLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTBlackpool2–2BromleyLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTCambridge United2–1ReadingLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTMansfield Town0–0HuddersfieldLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTMilton Keynes Dons1–1PeterboroughLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTOxford United3–0Burton AlbionLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTPlymouth3–0BarnsleyLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTSheffield Wednesday0–0WiganLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTStockport County3–4LeicesterLeague Onevno forecast yet
- FTAyr Utd1–3Inverness CTChampionshipvno forecast yet
- FTDunfermline2–0Queen's ParkChampionshipvno forecast yet
- FTRaith Rovers4–0ArbroathChampionshipvno forecast yet
- FTRSC Anderlecht II2–6Lokeren-TemseChallenger Pro Leaguevno forecast yet
- FTSeraing United1–2Sporting HasseltChallenger Pro Leaguevno forecast yet
Premier League
Jupiler Pro League
Süper Lig
Eliteserien
1. Lig
Championship
Challenger Pro League
2 matches
3 matches
Primeira Liga
Eredivisie
Eerste Divisie1 match
Bundesliga2 matches
Ligue 1
2 matches
1 match
Pro League5 matches
- FTLazio2–2AC MilanSerie Avexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.4 goals)AC Milan38% likely · pays 2.207 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTRosenborg5–3TromsoEliteserienvno forecast yet
- FTFC ST. Gallen0–3FC SionSuper Leaguevno forecast yet
- FTFC Thun0–1GrasshoppersSuper Leaguevno forecast yet
- FTOlympiakos Piraeus0–1OFISuper League 1vno forecast yet
Super League
Super League 11 match
5 matches
- FT1. FC Köln1–1Werder BremenBundesligavexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.3 goals)1. FC Köln46% likely · pays 2.15
- FTTottenham0–0EvertonPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.2 goals)Tottenham40% likely · pays 2.04
- FTAthletic Club1–1ElcheLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.8 goals)Athletic Club58% likely · pays 1.45
- FTGirona1–2CastellónSegunda Divisiónvno forecast yet
- FTGranada CF1–1AlbaceteSegunda Divisiónvno forecast yet
1 match
6 matches
- FTAlanyaspor2–2GöztepeSüper Ligv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTCasa Pia1–4FC PortoPrimeira Ligav2 notesexpect 0–3 (0.6–1.9 goals)FC Porto68% likely · pays 1.26
- FTKonyaspor1–0TrabzonsporSüper Ligv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTFC Lugano2–2BSC Young BoysSuper Leaguevno forecast yet
- FTBodrum FK4–0Batman Petrolspor1. Ligvno forecast yet
- FTÜmraniyespor1–2Antalyaspor1. Ligvno forecast yet
2 matches
2 matches
6 matches
- FTFortuna Sittard1–5AjaxEredivisiev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.7 goals)Ajax52% likely · pays 1.445 home wins in the last 9 between them.
- FTIraklis 19081–1AtromitosSuper League 1v1 noteno forecast yet
- FTAl Khaleej Saihat1–1Al-NassrPro Leaguev1 noteno forecast yet
- FTDunkerque2–1Saint EtienneLigue 2v1 noteno forecast yet
- FTExcelsior Virton3–0KRC Genk IIChallenger Pro Leaguev1 noteno forecast yet
- FTAl Shabab0–0Al-FayhaPro Leaguev1 noteno forecast yet
1 match
1 match
7 matches
- FTLorient2–2ToulouseLigue 1vexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Lorient39% likely · pays 2.46
- FTAuxerre1–0NiceLigue 1vexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.2 goals)Auxerre36% likely · pays 2.98
- FTAtalanta1–2CagliariSerie Avexpect 2–1 (2.1–0.9 goals)Atalantaour bet65% likely · pays 1.756 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTParis FC0–0LyonLigue 1v1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.5–1.6 goals)Lyon41% likely · pays 2.67
- FTLe Havre0–0AngersLigue 1v2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Le Havre48% likely · pays 2.70
- FTOH Leuven1–1Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro Leaguev2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.5 goals)Cercle Brugge39% likely · pays 2.73
- FTUnion St. Gilloise5–0Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro Leaguev4 notesexpect 1–0 (1.6–0.5 goals)Union St. Gilloise63% likely · pays 1.236 home wins in the last 10 between them.
6 matches
- FTSunderland0–2ArsenalPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 0–1 (0.6–1.7 goals)Arsenal65% likely · pays 1.638 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTReal Madrid4–1Rayo VallecanoLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.2–0.8 goals)Real Madrid70% likely · pays 1.186 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTAtletico-MG3–1FluminenseSerie Av1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.0 goals)Atletico-MG42% likely · pays 2.20
- FTGremio1–2Vasco DA GamaSerie Av2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.2 goals)Gremioour bet53% likely · pays 2.80
- FTCambuur3–0NEC NijmegenEredivisiev3 notesexpect 1–2 (0.9–2.3 goals)NEC Nijmegen67% likely · pays 1.65
- FTCordoba0–2AlmeriaSegunda Divisiónv1 noteno forecast yet
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
6 matches
- FTBotafogo1–1RB BragantinoSerie Av2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–0.9 goals)Botafogoour bet57% likely · pays 2.39
- FTColumbus Crew0–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.2 goals)Columbus Crew57% likely · pays 1.83
- FTDC United0–0Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.2 goals)DC United43% likely · pays 2.23
- FTOrlando City SC3–0Toronto FCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.2 goals)Orlando City SC57% likely · pays 1.91
- FTFC Cincinnati3–3CharlotteMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.4 goals)FC Cincinnati50% likely · pays 2.14
- FTInter Miami2–2Nashville SCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.2–1.4 goals)Inter Miami54% likely · pays 2.10
Major League Soccer
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 11 are fewer than the 146.6 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Atalanta vCagliariAtalanta6 wins in their last 10 between them.We make it 65% against a price of 57%. Read the case →
- Bolton vCardiffBoltonWe make it 58% against a price of 37%. Read the case →
- Union St. Gilloise vLommel UnitedUnder 2.5We make it 57% against a price of 32%. Read the case →
- Borussia Dortmund vSC Paderborn 07Under 2.5Their last 10 matches averaged 2.3 goals.We make it 57% against a price of 29%. Read the case →
- Botafogo vRB BragantinoBotafogoWe make it 57% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
- Gremio vVasco DA GamaGremioWe make it 53% against a price of 34%. Read the case →
- Lazio vAC MilanOver 2.5We make it 52% against a price of 43%. Read the case →
- Chapecoense-sc vInternacionalInternacionalWe make it 52% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
- Osasuna vEspanyolOver 2.5We make it 51% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
- Necaxa vPueblaNoWe make it 51% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
- Palmeiras vSao PauloYesBoth sides scored in 6 of their last 10.We make it 51% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
11 recommended, from 419 priced outcomes weighed · 146.6 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
6 of 8 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- West Ham 6–0 Wrexhamour call landedwe called the home win 69%
- Sevilla 1–0 Valenciaour call landedwe called the home win 40%
- KV Mechelen 0–1 Anderlechtour call landedwe called the away win 42%
- Rennes 1–0 Marseilleour call landedwe called the home win 41%
- Venezia 2–4 Fiorentinaour call landedwe called the away win 52%
- Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04our call did not landwe called the home win 57%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.