Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Serie A3 matches
- FTSporting Kansas City3–1Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccerv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–2.3 goals)Los Angeles FC62% likely · pays 1.75
- FTFC Dallas2–1Portland TimbersMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.2 goals)FC Dallas54% likely · pays 1.85
- FTSt. Louis City4–2Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccerv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)St. Louis City47% likely · pays 2.05
Major League Soccer
1 match
Liga MX2 matches
2 matches
1 match
2 matches
Ekstraklasa
Eredivisie1 match
Championship4 matches
- FTClub Brugge KV3–1AntwerpJupiler Pro Leaguev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.3–1.0 goals)Club Brugge KV67% likely · pays 1.276 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTFC Heidenheim1–0Holstein Kiel2. Bundesligav2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–1.3 goals)FC Heidenheimour bet52% likely · pays 2.33
- FTVfL Osnabrück1–3Hertha Berlin2. Bundesligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.8 goals)Hertha Berlin51% likely · pays 2.127 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTKarlsruher SC0–3Energie Cottbus2. Bundesligav3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.6 goals)Energie Cottbus41% likely · pays 3.71
Jupiler Pro League
2. Bundesliga
7 matches
- FTCelta Vigo1–1MalagaLa Ligav2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–0.9 goals)Celta Vigo58% likely · pays 1.77
- FTSporting Gijon0–1EldenseSegunda Divisiónv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.9 goals)Sporting Gijon55% likely · pays 1.70
- FTLyngby1–1SonderjyskeSuperligav2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.2–1.3 goals)Sonderjyske39% likely · pays 5.30
- FTSilkeborg1–1ViborgSuperligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.5–1.5 goals)Viborg39% likely · pays 1.97
- FTFC Zurich2–1FC VaduzSuper Leaguev3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.4 goals)FC Zurich46% likely · pays 2.38
- FTHammarby FF3–1IF BrommapojkarnaAllsvenskanv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTIF Elfsborg1–0Kalmar FFAllsvenskanv1 noteno forecast yet
La Liga
Segunda División
Superliga
Super League
Allsvenskan
4 matches
- FTAustria Vienna2–1Austria LustenauBundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.9–0.9 goals)Austria Viennaour bet61% likely · pays 1.85
- FTWSG Wattens2–2TSV HartbergBundesligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.5 goals)TSV Hartberg40% likely · pays 3.60
- FTHeerenveen0–0TelstarEredivisiev3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.3 goals)Heerenveen53% likely · pays 1.65
- FTViking8–1Kristiansund BKEliteserienv1 noteno forecast yet
Bundesliga
Eliteserien1 match
3 matches
Serie A
Premier League
Ligue 11 match
Bundesliga6 matches
- FTGenk1–1GentJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.2 goals)Genk48% likely · pays 2.267 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTLiège4–4Club Brugge IIChallenger Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.2 goals)Liège45% likely · pays 2.00
- FTRanders FC1–2OdenseSuperligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.3 goals)Randers FC43% likely · pays 2.13
- FTGençlerbirliği S.K.1–2KasımpaşaSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–1.0 goals)Gençlerbirliği S.K.42% likely · pays 2.38
- FTSivasspor1–1Muğlaspor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.3–0.8 goals)Sivasspor48% likely · pays 2.02
- FTIğdır FK1–0Mardin 19691. Ligv3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.9 goals)Iğdır FK45% likely · pays 2.446 home wins in the last 10 between them.
Challenger Pro League
Süper Lig
1. Lig
2 matches
3 matches
2 matches
Eerste Divisie5 matches
- FTSturm Graz2–1Lask LinzBundesligav2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.1 goals)Sturm Graz50% likely · pays 3.607 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTKalamata3–1Volos NFCSuper League 1v3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.0 goals)Kalamata50% likely · pays 2.53
- FTStart2–0BrannEliteserienv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTKFUM Oslo2–1AalesundEliteserienv1 noteno forecast yet
- FTHam-Kam1–5MoldeEliteserienv1 noteno forecast yet
Super League 1
3 matches
Serie B
3 matches
- FTManchester United0–1Manchester CityPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.7 goals)Manchester City44% likely6 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTSV Elversberg1–2Bayern MünchenBundesligav1 noteexpect 1–2 (1.1–3.0 goals)Bayern München74% likely8 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTLegia Warszawa1–1Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–0.9 goals)Legia Warszawa54% likely
3 matches
1 match
Pro League3 matches
- FTGetafe1–1Deportivo La CorunaLa Ligav1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–0.8 goals)Getafe45% likely · pays 2.70
- FTZulte Waregem0–1CharleroiJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.4 goals)Zulte Waregem39% likely7 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTMallorca2–0SabadellSegunda Divisiónv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Mallorca48% likely
6 matches
- FTArouca1–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Ligav1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.2–1.1 goals)Arouca39% likely · pays 2.696 home wins in the last 10 between them.
- FTGalatasaray1–0KocaelisporSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.4–0.7 goals)Galatasaray75% likely · pays 1.296 home wins in the last 8 between them.
- FTBenfica3–1GIL VicentePrimeira Ligav3 notesexpect 2–1 (2.3–0.7 goals)Benfica73% likely · pays 1.166 home wins in the last 9 between them.
- FTAmed5–0BaşakşehirSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Amed37% likely
- FTBursaspor2–2Esenler Erokspor1. Ligv2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.1–1.6 goals)Esenler Erokspor47% likely
- FTFatih Karagümrük1–1Manisa F.K.1. Ligv3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Fatih Karagümrük45% likely
Primeira Liga
3 matches
2 matches
Liga Profesional Argentina
5 matches
- FTPSV Eindhoven4–1Sparta RotterdamEredivisiev1 noteexpect 3–1 (3.1–0.9 goals)PSV Eindhoven79% likely · pays 1.16
- FTPAOK2–0Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1v2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.7–0.8 goals)PAOK60% likely4 home wins in the last 6 between them.
- FTKifisia0–0LevadiakosSuper League 1v3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.6 goals)Levadiakos46% likely
- FTAl Riyadh2–0Al KholoodPro Leaguev1 noteno forecast yet
- FTAl Diriyah0–0AbhaPro Leaguev1 noteno forecast yet
1 match
2 matches
3 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- lineups pending — The confirmed team sheets are not out yet, so an injury or a rested first-choice player could still change this match.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 9 are fewer than the 142.1 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- FC Volendam vDen BoschFC VolendamWe make it 66% against a price of 56%. Read the case →
- Pogon Szczecin vWieczysta KrakówPogon SzczecinWe make it 61% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
- Austria Vienna vAustria LustenauAustria ViennaWe make it 61% against a price of 53%. Read the case →
- FC Heidenheim vHolstein KielFC HeidenheimWe make it 52% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
- Benfica vGIL VicenteYesWe make it 52% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
- Panathinaikos vPanetolikosUnder 2.5We make it 52% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
- Flamengo vCorinthiansYesWe make it 51% against a price of 39%. Read the case →
- San Jose Earthquakes vHouston DynamoSan Jose EarthquakesWe make it 51% against a price of 39%. Read the case →
- Lyngby vSonderjyskeUnder 2.5We make it 50% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
9 recommended, from 406 priced outcomes weighed · 142.1 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
23 of 61 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Inter Miami 2–2 Nashville SCour call did not landwe called the home win 54%
- FC Cincinnati 3–3 Charlotteour call did not landwe called the home win 50%
- DC United 0–0 Atlanta United FCour call did not landwe called the home win 43%
- Columbus Crew 0–1 New York Red Bullsour call did not landwe called the home win 57%
- Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FCour call landedwe called the home win 57%
- Botafogo 1–1 RB Bragantinoour call did not landwe called the home win 57%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.