Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
Liga MX1 match
Ekstraklasa2 matches
La Liga
Super League2 matches
Eredivisie1 match
6 matches
- FTHibernian0–1KilmarnockPremiershipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–0.9 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.72Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTMotherwell0–4AberdeenPremiershipv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.7–0.7 goals)No50% likely · pays 2.30Both sides scored in 3 of the last 10.
- FTFalkirk2–1Heart Of MidlothianPremiershipv2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.4 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTBristol City0–1LincolnChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.3 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 1.87Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTMiddlesbrough2–2MillwallChampionshipv3 notesexpect 1–0 (1.5–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.72Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTStenhousemuir1–0PartickChampionshipv3 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.1 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.87
Premiership
Championship
Championship1 match
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 3 are fewer than the 34.3 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Raków Częstochowa vZaglebie LubinRaków CzęstochowaWe make it 63% against a price of 49%. Read the case →
- Alaves vValenciaYesWe make it 53% against a price of 48%. Read the case →
- Middlesbrough vMillwallUnder 2.5We make it 50% against a price of 38%. Read the case →
3 recommended, from 98 priced outcomes weighed · 34.3 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
12 of 20 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Bahia 2–1 Remoour call landedwe called the home win 56%
- SC Braga 1–0 Estorilour call landedwe called the home win 68%
- Moreirense 3–1 Maritimoour call landedwe called the home win 44%
- Villarreal 1–2 Real Betisour call did not landwe called the home win 53%
- Leeds 4–1 Newcastleour call landedwe called the home win 41%
- RED Star FC 93 1–0 Metzour call did not landwe called the away win 37%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.