Matchday Briefing

What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.

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Today's matches

1 match

2 matches

1 match

2 matches

6 matches

1 match

1 match

2 matches

1 match

2 matches

2 matches

1 match

1 match

2 matches

1 match

What the marks mean, and what the plus does

+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.

How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.

  • model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
  • congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
  • few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
  • wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.

Today’s bets

Today's 4 are fewer than the 49.0 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.

4 recommended, from 140 priced outcomes weighed · 49.0 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all

We recommend; we never guarantee.

What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested

Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.

The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.

How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.

How 's forecasts turned out

42 of 77 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.

What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.