Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
1. Lig3 matches
- FTVfL Wolfsburg5–1SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.2 goals)Yes59% likely · pays 1.55
- FTSpVgg Greuther Furth1–11. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.5 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.42Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTWidzew Łódź2–2Wieczysta KrakówEkstraklasav2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–1.0 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.53Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
2. Bundesliga
Ekstraklasa4 matches
- FTKasımpaşa0–0KonyasporSüper Ligv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.2 goals)Yes54% likely · pays 1.87Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTMuğlaspor2–2Iğdır FK1. Ligv2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.1–1.2 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.80
- FTLyngby0–4SilkeborgSuperligav2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.4 goals)Yes55% likely · pays 1.53Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTSarpsborg 08 FF1–3KFUM OsloEliteserienv1 notenot checked for this forecast
Süper Lig
Superliga
Eliteserien1 match
Bundesliga17 matches
- FTReims1–1MontpellierLigue 2v1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.3–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.70Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTGrenoble1–1Clermont FootLigue 2v1 noteexpect 1–0 (1.1–0.9 goals)No50% likely · pays 1.87Both sides scored in 4 of the last 10.
- FTGroningen3–0PEC ZwolleEredivisiev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.0–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTLaval1–1SochauxLigue 2v2 notesexpect 0–1 (1.0–1.2 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.87
- FTPAU2–0DunkerqueLigue 2v2 notesexpect 1–2 (1.6–1.7 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.67
- FTAnnecy1–2DijonLigue 2v2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Yes52% likely · pays 1.75Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTWaalwijk6–1MVVEerste Divisiev2 notesexpect 2–1 (2.4–1.0 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTRodez3–4NancyLigue 2v3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.9–0.9 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.67
- FTJong AZ4–1FC VolendamEerste Divisiev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.4–1.9 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.33Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTDen Bosch2–1Helmond SportEerste Divisiev3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.1 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.36Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTFC OSS3–0DordrechtEerste Divisiev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.2–1.3 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.55Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTFrancs Borains3–2RSC Anderlecht IIChallenger Pro Leaguev3 notesexpect 1–2 (1.5–1.5 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.62
- FTClub Brugge II2–2KAA Gent IIChallenger Pro Leaguev3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.5–1.3 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.57
- FTAlmere City FC1–0HeraclesEerste Divisiev4 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.4 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.36Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTFC Eindhoven3–1EmmenEerste Divisiev4 notesexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.4 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTJong Ajax0–0RodaEerste Divisiev4 notesexpect 1–2 (1.3–1.4 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.42Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTJong Utrecht1–3VVV VenloEerste Divisiev4 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.40Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
Ligue 2
Eredivisie
Eerste Divisie
Challenger Pro League
5 matches
- FTBayern München7–0Union BerlinBundesligav1 noteexpect 3–1 (3.2–0.9 goals)Yesour bet56% likely · pays 1.95Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTJuve Stabia1–1CesenaSerie Bv2 notesexpect 1–0 (1.4–0.9 goals)Yes51% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 6 of the last 8.
- FTAlbacete1–2CordobaSegunda Divisiónv3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.8–1.2 goals)Yes57% likely · pays 1.57Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTWisla Krakow2–1Slask WroclawEkstraklasav3 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTQueen's Park0–2Ayr UtdChampionshipv3 notesexpect 0–1 (1.2–1.2 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.87
Bundesliga
Serie B
Segunda División
Championship3 matches
- FTMonaco2–1LensLigue 1v1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.6 goals)Yes61% likely · pays 1.55Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTMonza2–1SassuoloSerie Av1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.3 goals)Yes56% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTGent2–1Standard LiegeJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.0 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.83Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
Ligue 1
Serie A
Jupiler Pro League3 matches
- FTBrentford3–0ChelseaPremier Leaguev1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.7–1.5 goals)Yes60% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTEspanyol1–3ElcheLa Ligav1 noteexpect 2–1 (1.6–1.1 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.73Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTBristol City1–0WatfordChampionshipv2 notesexpect 2–1 (1.4–1.1 goals)Yes53% likely · pays 1.75Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
Premier League
La Liga
Championship1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina1 match
Major League SoccerWhat the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- lineups pending — The confirmed team sheets are not out yet, so an injury or a rested first-choice player could still change this match.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 3 are fewer than the 90.6 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Rodez vNancyRodezWe make it 61% against a price of 41%. Read the case →
- Bayern München vUnion BerlinYesBoth sides scored in 6 of their last 10.We make it 56% against a price of 50%. Read the case →
- Albacete vCordobaAlbaceteWe make it 50% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
3 recommended, from 259 priced outcomes weighed · 90.6 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
2 of 3 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Malaga 1–3 Villarrealour call landedwe called the away win 49%
- AFC Wimbledon 0–0 Milton Keynes Donsour call did not landwe called the away win 38%
- Real Betis 1–0 Getafeour call landedwe called the home win 52%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.