Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
Today's matches
1 match
Serie A1 match
Liga Profesional Argentina3 matches
- FTSeattle Sounders0–0New York Red BullsMajor League Soccerv1 noteOver 1.578% likely · pays 1.11Last 10 between them averaged 2.9 goals.
- FTAustin1–1San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccerv1 noteOver 1.581% likely · pays 1.17Last 10 between them averaged 2.9 goals.
- FTFC Dallas4–3Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccerv2 notesOver 1.585% likely · pays 1.14Last 10 between them averaged 3.3 goals.
Major League Soccer
1 match
Liga MX2 matches
2 matches
1 match
1 match
Eredivisie1 match
Championship4 matches
- FTCercle Brugge0–3GentJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteOver 1.580% likely · pays 1.24Last 8 between them averaged 2.6 goals.
- FTHertha Berlin2–11. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesligavnot checked for this forecast
- FTSpVgg Greuther Furth0–1FC Heidenheim2. Bundesligavnot checked for this forecast
- FTVfL Osnabrück3–1Eintracht Braunschweig2. Bundesligavnot checked for this forecast
Jupiler Pro League
2. Bundesliga
4 matches
Segunda División
Super League
Allsvenskan
Superliga2 matches
1 match
Ekstraklasa8 matches
- FTEverton2–2Manchester UnitedPremier Leaguev1 noteOver 1.578% likely · pays 1.20Last 10 between them averaged 3.0 goals.
- FTParma1–1MonzaSerie Av1 noteOver 1.571% likely · pays 1.41Last 10 between them averaged 2.4 goals.
- FTFrosinone3–2VeneziaSerie Av2 notesOver 1.576% likely · pays 1.26Last 10 between them averaged 2.7 goals.
- FTEstac Troyes2–6StrasbourgLigue 1v3 notesOver 1.580% likely · pays 1.27Last 10 between them averaged 3.5 goals.
- FTCesena1–1MantovaSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTVirtus Entella2–2Vicenza VirtusSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTJuve Stabia0–3PisaSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTModena0–1AvellinoSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
Premier League
Serie A
Ligue 1
Serie B
1 match
Bundesliga8 matches
- FTKortrijk0–2Zulte WaregemJupiler Pro Leaguev2 notesOver 1.580% likely · pays 1.24Last 8 between them averaged 2.8 goals.
- FTHeart Of Midlothian2–1DundeePremiershipv2 notesOver 1.577% likely · pays 1.17Last 9 between them averaged 2.7 goals.
- FTST Johnstone2–1HibernianPremiershipv3 notesOver 1.572% likely · pays 1.28Last 8 between them averaged 3.3 goals.
- FTCoritiba1–2MirassolSerie Av3 notesOver 1.578% likely · pays 1.40Last 10 between them averaged 3.0 goals.
- FTKasımpaşa2–2AmedSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTÇorum FK3–0EyüpsporSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTK. Lierse S.K.0–0LiègeChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTOdense0–5FC CopenhagenSuperligavnot checked for this forecast
Premiership
Süper Lig
Challenger Pro League
2 matches
La Liga
4 matches
- FTSanta Clara4–0Rio AvePrimeira Ligav1 noteOver 1.571% likely · pays 1.44Last 8 between them averaged 2.1 goals.
- FTFC Basel 18931–3FC LuganoSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Sion3–2FC ThunSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTIF Brommapojkarna2–1IF ElfsborgAllsvenskanvnot checked for this forecast
Primeira Liga
2 matches
Eerste Divisie2 matches
Eliteserien
2 matches
3 matches
- FTEintracht Frankfurt1–4FC AugsburgBundesligavOver 1.581% likely · pays 1.14Last 10 between them averaged 3.9 goals.
- FTArsenal2–1ChelseaPremier Leaguev1 noteOver 1.578% likely · pays 1.26Last 10 between them averaged 2.9 goals.
- FTLech Poznan1–0Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasavnot checked for this forecast
3 matches
Super League 1
5 matches
- FTMalaga0–0LevanteLa Ligav2 notesOver 1.579% likely · pays 1.31Last 10 between them averaged 3.3 goals.
- FTAlaves5–2OsasunaLa Ligav1 noteOver 1.574% likely · pays 1.50Last 10 between them averaged 1.8 goals.
- FTAnderlecht0–0GenkJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteOver 1.580% likely · pays 1.20Last 8 between them averaged 3.5 goals.
- FTCastellón2–0AlbaceteSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
- FTOFI2–0KifisiaSuper League 1not checked for this forecast
7 matches
- FTVitória SC0–0Casa PiaPrimeira Ligav2 notesOver 1.574% likely · pays 1.34Last 8 between them averaged 2.4 goals.
- FTTrabzonspor5–0Gençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTKocaelispor1–0SamsunsporSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTLevadiakos0–2PanetolikosSuper League 1vnot checked for this forecast
- FTAntalyaspor1–2Sivasspor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBatman Petrolspor4–3Fatih Karagümrük1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTMuğlaspor2–2Vanspor FK1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
1. Lig
3 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
2 matches
5 matches
- FTEspanyol1–1SevillaLa LigavOver 1.576% likely · pays 1.37Last 10 between them averaged 2.7 goals.
- FTInternacional2–3SantosSerie Av1 noteOver 1.576% likely · pays 1.40Last 10 between them averaged 1.9 goals.
- FTCruzeiro3–1Atletico ParanaenseSerie Av1 noteOver 1.571% likely · pays 1.28Last 10 between them averaged 3.0 goals.
- FTRemo0–1FlamengoSerie Av2 notesOver 1.578% likely · pays 1.25Last 10 between them averaged 3.3 goals.
- FTAlmeria3–2CadizSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
1 match
2 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
1 match
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 6 are fewer than the 80.5 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Coritiba vMirassolYesBoth sides scored in 8 of their last 10.We make it 57% against a price of 50%. Read the case →
- Fluminense vVasco DA GamaFluminenseWe make it 56% against a price of 42%. Read the case →
- Internacional vSantosYesWe make it 53% against a price of 47%. Read the case →
- Alaves vOsasunaYesWe make it 53% against a price of 45%. Read the case →
- Estac Troyes vStrasbourgStrasbourgWe make it 53% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
- Vitória SC vCasa PiaYesWe make it 52% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
6 recommended, from 230 priced outcomes weighed · 80.5 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
29 of 58 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- Charlotte 0–0 Houston Dynamoour call did not landwe called the home win 46%
- Inter Miami 2–2 Atlanta United FCour call did not landwe called the home win 73%
- Columbus Crew 3–0 Colorado Rapidsour call landedwe called the home win 56%
- Toronto FC 4–4 Chicago Fireour call did not landwe called the away win 39%
- Philadelphia Union 2–0 CF Montrealour call landedwe called the home win 65%
- Orlando City SC 1–0 San Diegoour call did not landwe called the away win 39%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.