Matchday Briefing
What we think will happen in every match today, with how sure we are — and how often we have been right.
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Today's matches
1 match
Liga MX3 matches
2. Bundesliga
9 matches
- FTNewcastle2–2BournemouthPremier Leaguev1 noteYes60% likely · pays 1.50Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTPreston2–1BlackburnChampionshipv2 notesYes53% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 8.
- FTStoke City4–0CharltonChampionshipv2 notesYes51% likely · pays 1.87Both sides scored in 6 of the last 8.
- FTLincoln1–1SouthamptonChampionshipv4 notesYes56% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTFleetwood Town2–0ShrewsburyLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTSalford City1–0Port ValeLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTWigan0–4Stockport CountyLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTPeterborough1–2Sheffield WednesdayLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTKAA Gent II2–2RSC Anderlecht IIChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
Premier League
Championship
League Two
League One
Challenger Pro League3 matches
Segunda División
Ligue 2
1 match
Ekstraklasa5 matches
- FTFiorentina1–2TorinoSerie AvYes54% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTSudtirol2–0CatanzaroSerie Bvnot checked for this forecast
- FTGais0–0BK HackenAllsvenskanvnot checked for this forecast
- FTDegerfors IF2–0HalmstadAllsvenskanvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBandırmaspor6–0Boluspor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
Serie A
Serie B
Allsvenskan
1. Lig5 matches
- FTWerder Bremen3–1RB LeipzigBundesligavYes59% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTBayer Leverkusen4–0Union BerlinBundesligavYes56% likely · pays 1.58Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FT1899 Hoffenheim2–3Borussia DortmundBundesligav1 noteYes62% likely · pays 1.44
- FTBorussia Mönchengladbach3–4SV ElversbergBundesligav2 notesYes50% likely · pays 1.50
- FTSC Paderborn 070–1SC FreiburgBundesligav3 notesNoour bet54% likely · pays 2.38
Bundesliga
42 matches
- FTFulham2–3Crystal PalacePremier Leaguev1 noteYes55% likely · pays 1.72Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTManchester City1–0CoventryPremier Leaguev1 noteYesour bet54% likely · pays 1.96
- FTBrighton1–1LeedsPremier Leaguev1 noteYes56% likely · pays 1.75
- FTBrentford1–1SunderlandPremier Leaguev1 noteYes53% likely · pays 1.85Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTNottingham Forest0–0TottenhamPremier Leaguev1 noteYes55% likely · pays 1.74Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTCharleroi2–3Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteYes52% likely · pays 1.76
- FTBurnley1–2Bristol CityChampionshipv2 notesYes54% likely · pays 1.75Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTWest Brom1–0WatfordChampionshipv2 notesYes51% likely · pays 1.81Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTQPR0–1MiddlesbroughChampionshipv2 notesYes54% likely · pays 1.66Both sides scored in 7 of the last 8.
- FTPortsmouth2–0CardiffChampionshipv2 notesYes53% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 7 of the last 8.
- FTRangers1–0MotherwellPremiershipv2 notesYes55% likely · pays 1.78Both sides scored in 5 of the last 8.
- FTWest Ham3–0DerbyChampionshipv3 notesYesour bet53% likely · pays 2.05Both sides scored in 7 of the last 10.
- FTSheffield Utd1–3NorwichChampionshipv3 notesYes57% likely · pays 1.63
- FTAberdeen0–0KilmarnockPremiershipv3 notesYes55% likely · pays 1.67
- FTMillwall4–0BoltonChampionshipv4 notesYes51% likely · pays 1.97
- FTDundee Utd1–1FalkirkPremiershipv4 notesYes55% likely · pays 1.62
- FTErzurumspor FK1–0KonyasporSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTRosenborg4–0Ham-KamEliteserienvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBristol Rovers1–0RotherhamLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTNorthampton1–0Newport CountyLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTRochdale1–4GillinghamLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTChesterfield3–3BarnetLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTSwindon Town3–1ColchesterLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTAccrington ST3–2Crawley TownLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTCrewe1–1YorkLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTExeter City0–0WalsallLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTCheltenham2–2GrimsbyLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTTranmere2–0OldhamLeague Twovnot checked for this forecast
- FTHuddersfield1–1Notts CountyLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTLeicester0–4Oxford UnitedLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTReading3–1BlackpoolLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBarnsley1–5StevenageLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBurton Albion2–2Cambridge UnitedLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTBradford1–0Mansfield TownLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTDoncaster2–3PlymouthLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTWycombe3–3Milton Keynes DonsLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTLuton1–1Leyton OrientLeague Onevnot checked for this forecast
- FTPartick1–0Ayr UtdChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTInverness CT0–2Raith RoversChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTArbroath1–1DunfermlineChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTQueen's Park2–1MortonChampionshipvnot checked for this forecast
- FTClub Brugge II0–1AS EupenChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
Jupiler Pro League
Premiership
Süper Lig
Eliteserien
Championship
2 matches
La Liga
3 matches
Primeira Liga
Eredivisie
Eerste Divisie2 matches
Ligue 1
2 matches
1 match
Pro League1 match
6 matches
- FTInter3–2NapoliSerie AvYesour bet55% likely · pays 1.91
- FTBrann1–2LillestromEliteserienvnot checked for this forecast
- FTBSC Young Boys3–3FC LuzernSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTFC Vaduz3–1LausanneSuper Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTVolos NFC1–1Olympiakos PiraeusSuper League 1vnot checked for this forecast
- FTAarhus2–2SilkeborgSuperligavnot checked for this forecast
Super League
Super League 1
Superliga1 match
6 matches
- FTFC Schalke 040–0Bayern MünchenBundesligav1 noteYes57% likely · pays 1.67Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTRayo Vallecano3–2Racing SantanderLa Ligav2 notesYes52% likely · pays 1.60Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTHull City0–0Aston VillaPremier Leaguev3 notesYes56% likely · pays 1.75
- FTAldosivi3–1BanfieldLiga Profesional Argentinav1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTValladolid1–0FC AndorraSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
- FTAD Ceuta FC0–2Celta de Vigo IISegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
Liga Profesional Argentina
5 matches
- FTAlverca1–2SC BragaPrimeira Ligav1 noteYesour bet55% likely · pays 1.95Both sides scored in 4 of the last 6.
- FTMaritimo0–3BenficaPrimeira Ligav2 notesYesour bet52% likely · pays 2.10Both sides scored in 5 of the last 7.
- FTFenerbahçe1–2BeşiktaşSüper Ligv1 notenot checked for this forecast
- FTKeçiörengücü3–0Sarıyer1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
- FTPendikspor1–0Ümraniyespor1. Ligvnot checked for this forecast
2 matches
5 matches
- FTAjax1–3PSV EindhovenEredivisiev2 notesYes62% likely · pays 1.30Both sides scored in 5 of the last 7.
- FTAEK Athens FC5–0Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1vnot checked for this forecast
- FTAl-Ittihad FC2–1Al-NassrPro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
- FTSaint Etienne3–1MontpellierLigue 2vnot checked for this forecast
- FTKRC Genk II3–0Sporting HasseltChallenger Pro Leaguevnot checked for this forecast
1 match
2 matches
5 matches
- FTAS Roma2–1AtalantaSerie Av1 noteYes56% likely · pays 1.70
- FTNice1–1Le MansLigue 1v3 notesYes53% likely · pays 1.75Both sides scored in 6 of the last 10.
- FTLe Havre1–2Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1vYes55% likely · pays 1.85
- FTStandard Liege1–0AntwerpJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteYes52% likely · pays 1.66Both sides scored in 6 of the last 8.
- FTSt. Truiden4–0RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro Leaguev1 noteYes53% likely · pays 1.80Both sides scored in 6 of the last 8.
6 matches
- FTSwansea0–0WrexhamChampionshipv1 noteYes56% likely · pays 1.78
- FTRB Bragantino2–3BahiaSerie Av1 noteYes55% likely
- FTVillarreal2–3Deportivo La CorunaLa Ligav2 notesYes55% likely · pays 1.88Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
- FTWillem II0–3ExcelsiorEredivisiev2 notesYes55% likely · pays 1.55Both sides scored in 5 of the last 6.
- FTST Mirren1–2CelticPremiershipv2 notesNo53% likelyBoth sides scored in 3 of the last 8.
- FTEldense0–0MallorcaSegunda Divisiónvnot checked for this forecast
Serie A
2 matches
1 match
1 match
1 match
6 matches
- FTToronto FC4–4Chicago FireMajor League Soccerv1 noteYes57% likely · pays 1.44Both sides scored in 10 of the last 10.
- FTInter Miami2–2Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccerv1 noteYes60% likely · pays 1.40Both sides scored in 9 of the last 10.
- FTPhiladelphia Union2–0CF MontrealMajor League Soccerv2 notesYes57% likely · pays 1.62Both sides scored in 10 of the last 10.
- FTCharlotte0–0Houston DynamoMajor League Soccerv2 notesYes55% likely · pays 1.57
- FTColumbus Crew3–0Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccerv3 notesYes58% likely · pays 1.67
- FTOrlando City SC1–0San DiegoMajor League Soccerv2 notesYes62% likely · pays 1.36Both sides scored in 8 of the last 10.
Major League Soccer
What the marks mean, and what the plus does
+Adds a call to your slip. Pick as many as you like, across as many matches, and we will say what the combination is actually worth — including the correction for legs on the same match, which cannot simply be multiplied together.
How much we know about a match yet: confirmed lineups, reported injuries, a settled price, and a forecast we are willing to publish. Four filled means everything we look at has landed. It is not how likely a bet is to win, and a match we know a lot about can still be one to leave alone.
- model vs market — Our number and the market's are far apart. That is a reason to look closely, not a reason to be confident.
- congestion — A side here has played four or more matches in the last fortnight, so changes to the eleven are likely.
- few meetings — These two have played each other too few times for their record against each other to tell you much.
- wide range — Our own range around this forecast is wide. The number is our best estimate, but we are not confident in it.
Today’s bets
Today's 10 are fewer than the 98.0 that chance alone would throw up, so today carries no evidence of an edge. The list is below because our reasoning is worth seeing, not because we are telling you to act on it.
- Hull City vAston VillaAston VillaWe make it 66% against a price of 51%. Read the case →
- Columbus Crew vColorado RapidsColumbus CrewWe make it 56% against a price of 43%. Read the case →
- Inter vNapoliYesWe make it 55% against a price of 50%. Read the case →
- Alverca vSC BragaYesBoth sides scored in 4 of their last 6.We make it 55% against a price of 49%. Read the case →
- Manchester City vCoventryYesWe make it 54% against a price of 47%. Read the case →
- SC Paderborn 07 vSC FreiburgNoWe make it 54% against a price of 40%. Read the case →
- West Ham vDerbyYesBoth sides scored in 7 of their last 10.We make it 53% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
- Maritimo vBenficaYesBoth sides scored in 5 of their last 7.We make it 52% against a price of 46%. Read the case →
- Charleroi vUnion St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise7 wins in their last 8 between them.We make it 52% against a price of 44%. Read the case →
- Sporting CP vNacionalYesBoth sides scored in 5 of their last 8.We make it 51% against a price of 45%. Read the case →
10 recommended, from 280 priced outcomes weighed · 98.0 expected from chance alone, if we held no edge at all
We recommend; we never guarantee.
What these percentages mean, and what has and has not been tested
Read the count against the number beside it, never on its own. The second figure is exact rather than an estimate: centred on the price, the fraction of outcomes clearing a bar of 65% is exactly 35%.
The percentage on each row is how sure we are that our number is above the price — not the chance the bet wins, and not a claim about profit. A 78% there and a 50% forecast means we think the outcome happens about half the time and we are fairly confident the market has it too low.
How these have actually turned out is on the accuracy page, per market.
How 's forecasts turned out
6 of 10 calls landed — the outcome we rated most likely came in.
- New York City FC 0–0 Nashville SCour call did not landwe called the home win 41%
- FC Porto 2–1 Moreirenseour call landedwe called the home win 77%
- Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Monacoour call did not landwe called the home win 67%
- Real Betis 1–0 Real Madridour call did not landwe called the away win 46%
- Ipswich 0–2 Liverpoolour call landedwe called the away win 58%
- Lommel United 0–1 Club Brugge KVour call landedwe called the away win 56%
What we called, next to what happened — not a win or a miss. A 30% call landing is a surprise, a 60% call missing is not a failure; whether the probabilities are any good is a question about hundreds at once, answered on accuracy.